Japan v. U.S. broadband: mental frameworks and buildout (was more on U.S. broadband A-OK A REAL MUST READ)

[David Farber <dave () farber net>]

------ Forwarded Message
From: Rod Van Meter <rdv () tera ics keio ac jp>
Reply-To: <rdv () tera ics keio ac jp>
Date: Thu, 13 Jan 2005 10:22:13 +0900
To: <dave () farber net>
Subject: Japan v. U.S. broadband: mental frameworks and buildout (was more
on U.S. broadband A-OK A REAL MUST READ)

Dave,

For IP, if you wish...

There seem to be two concerns here -- there is the popular conception
that building out a network in Japan (or another super-dense country,
like Singapore) is cheaper than in the U.S., and that adoption rates are
higher here than in the U.S.  Let me address both of them -- first the
buildout then the mental framework that drives adoption.

It is not automatically clear to me that buildout is cheaper here
(Japan).  It's definitely true that the mean, median, and maximum
distances to reach a user from some sort of telco office, and the
distance from office to office, are shorter.  It is also almost
certainly true that the cost per meter to install fiber is higher here.
They probably balance out to be somewhat cheaper here, but the
difference is undoubtedly smaller than the conventional wisdom.

Distances are shorter, but installation is more manpower-intensive, as
anyone who has spent five minutes watching a Japanese construction
project can attest.  Equipment and materials arrive on much smaller
trucks, which must wend their way through smaller, more congested
streets.  More security guards/flagwavers seem to be needed (or are part
of Japan's "full employment"); the narrow confines complicate use of
cranes and backhoes; the non-Manhattan geometry complicates underground
conduits.  Weather and climate have an impact; Tokyo is a somewhat
wetter version of Atlanta, with work possible year-round, but in
Singapore more days are going to be lost to the monsoons, and starting
just a couple of hours north of Tokyo the winter snows impede work
several months a year.  Survey costs, soil quality, groundwater
saturation and local and national regulations alter the equation.  As
I'm sure you remember, in the early 90s the Ministry of Post and
Telecommunications actively impeded the development of ISPs such as IIJ.

So, it's a complex equation to put the fiber in the ground, without even
considering the higher costs of office space, the cost of backend
equipment, etc.  I'm sure there are folks on this list who could
enumerate more issues, as well as quantify them.

Besides, as others have noted, in the U.S. the buildout is now more or
less complete, it's only the business issues of driving adoption.

I think, in keeping with Lakoff's frames, the issue is how people *think
about* the Internet.  Dialup never achieved significant penetration
here, so when DSL and cable modems became feasible, there was a huge
opportunity, which was grabbed with both hands by Yahoo!, IIJ, JCom, and
others.  THEY DEFINED THE MENTAL FRAMEWORK OF THE INTERNET TO MEAN
"BROADBAND".

My mother-in-law has no idea what a modem is, or, for that matter, what
DSL and cable modems are.  The Internet, to her, is the box that sits on
top of her PC and connects to the cable.  There are undoubtedly millions
of people like her; if you want to connect to the Internet, you go get
broadband.  Simple as that.  No discussion; dialup and modems never
enter into the equation.

Self-install kits are ubiquitous; you have probably seen the Yahoo!BB
people out on the streets and in train stations handing out bright red
bags that contain a DSL modem and a teddy bear, in exchange for five
quick minutes signing up right then and there (I suspect they skip any
sort of credit check).

For many other people, though, including my mother-in-law, Internet
comes with the PC -- or, more correctly, Internet requires a PC.  She
never had a PC until she wanted to send us email (when we lived in the
U.S.), so she got a PC and was sold broadband along with it.

So, I think the buildout issue is a red herring, and adoption is driven
partly by how people think about the Internet.

Regards,

  --Rod



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