Interesting People mailing list archives
more on gasoline price history
From: David Farber <dave () farber net>
Date: Wed, 31 Aug 2005 10:35:16 -0400
Begin forwarded message: From: Robert Lee <robertslee () verizon net> Date: August 31, 2005 8:59:31 AM EDT To: dave () farber net Subject: RE: [IP] more on gasoline price history Reply-To: robertslee () verizon net That was the point of an IP post I did a week ago, in which I had an egregious typo.The price of oil is not nearly so much involved in the cost of manufactured goods resulting in broad based COST and PRICING PRESSURES on BUSINESS which
CAN result in inflation IF they pass it on.I think the data shows that the inflationary price of oil manifests itself mostly in the cost of gasoline and heating and that these higher costs to the consumer simply displace discretionary spending at "Walmart" and thus
lead to a business reversal and price deflation given that productivitygains have led to labor representing a smaller part of the component costs
of manufacturing and given that the substitution for labor---capitalinvestment---is almost impossible to trim in the short term, resulting in a
very low marginal cost to produce, resulting and allowing a "need toproduce", which leads to lower prices and, to compensate, higher unit sales.
Look at Dell. Look at Cisco. The prices have never been lower, the unit
sales are higher.In heavier goods like cars, they have never lasted longer, cost less. So,
again, like Cisco and Dell, they have a need to produce. Which winds up, ironically, approximating the Marxian doctrine of "fromthose according to their ability to those according to their need" -- only in
our case it is "from those according to their need [to produce] to those according to the incentives we can provide to consume." Globalism has marginalized the power of any country to control its own economy.If you think about the difficulty of Europe and the utterly bizarre notion
of the EU and the Euro: they have a dozen countries each of which hasdifferent economies and none of which can now react to those vagaries using
monetary policy. It is bizarre. It is like trying to charge Battery A using a voltage sensor on Battery B. I see an unending unvirtuous vortex of deflationary pressures, much like Japan has faced for the last 20 years.When our government complains that we are all right, that all we have to do is get the Europeans to consume more and save less, you know something is
terribly wrong. Bob Lee -----Original Message----- From: David Farber [mailto:dave () farber net] Sent: Tuesday, August 30, 2005 4:57 PM To: Ip Ip Subject: [IP] more on gasoline price history Begin forwarded message: From: Jude Shavlik <shavlik () cs wisc edu> Date: August 30, 2005 1:06:26 PM EDT To: dave () farber net Subject: Re: [IP] gasoline price history
Despite the recent price rises of gasoline in the US, gas is still cheap if you consider inflation
Since increases in the price of oil are a big driver of inflation, isn't it a bit circular and misleading to then adjust gas prices for inflation? Does anyone know what fraction of inflation over the last N years can be attributed to the price of oil? It would be interesting to see a constant-dollars plot of historical gas prices corrected for the impact of oil prices on inflation. Jude Shavlik Computer Sciences Dept Univ of Wisconsin - Madison ------------------------------------- You are subscribed as robertslee () verizon net To manage your subscription, go to http://v2.listbox.com/member/?listname=ipArchives at: http://www.interesting-people.org/archives/interesting- people/
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- more on gasoline price history David Farber (Aug 31)