more on interesting analysis...

[Dave Farber <dave () farber net>]

------ Forwarded Message
From: Norman MacLeod <gaelwolf () waypt com>
Date: Mon, 14 Apr 2003 14:32:14 -0700
To: dave () farber net
Subject: RE: [IP] interesting analysis...


Dave -

The article, pretty much in common with nearly all articles dealing with
post-war prognostications, ignores the wild card of all wild cards in the
region's geopolitical opportunities.

Ayatollah Sistani.

Students of history and policy really ought to look more closely at this
"most learned of the learned", because he is at the apex of Shi'a Islam, and
he holds many, many keys to the future.

Saddam could not afford to kill him, because that would have inflamed at
least 60% of Iraq's population...probably into an open revolution that they
could have won.  As a result, Sistani spent many years in house arrest.

Ayatollah Sistani issued a fatwa instructing his followers not to interfere
with coalition operations.  Who would have thought such a thing could
happen?

Iran's theocrats have to be in a tizzy...because Ayatollah Sistani is one of
the most significant threats to their form of government to come down the
road since the Shah.  You see, Sistani, along with nearly all of the top
Shi'ite clerics, strongly advocates the complete separation of religion and
state.  We're learning that there aren't really any Ayatollahs in Iran who
are recognized as senior Shi'ite clerics...

What's going to happen when he tells the Iranian Ayatollahs that they have
to get out of the business of governing and turn Iran over to a secular
government?  (He's already gone far enough against the grain to indicate
that this is not an unlikely scenario...)  Either they comply and Iran gets
government reform without violence...or they rebel and Iran has another
revolution from which more secular leadership is likely to emerge.  America
would not need to get involved in either process...indeed, it should not.
Time enough to establish geopolitical relationships when the process results
in a new form of government in Iran.

> From the standpoint of the American government, I would suggest that two
things need to happen immediately.  The first is to withdraw our military
assets from Saudi Arabia.  They are not needed there any longer, since the
primary reason for their presence, Saddam's regime, is no longer a factor.
American presence there is an ongoing irritant for the Saudis and Islam.
Since we no longer have to be there, it's time to leave.

The second is to recognize what Sistani's potential for reforming a
significant portion of the region from an Islamic perspective.  With
separation of religion and politics in Iraq, chances for the growth of a
successful democratic form of government in that nation can only increase.
America should not make the mistake of equating his position and power for
that embodied years back by a Shi'ite maverick named Khomeini.

Worth thinking about?  Certainly couldn't make things much more confused
than they already are in the region...

    Norman MacLeod




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