IP: read from end back (by the msg) Worth Magazine on Broadband

[Dave Farber <dave () farber net>]

------ Forwarded Message
From: "Ralph W. Wyndrum Jr." <rww () monmouth com>
Date: Thu, 27 Jun 2002 21:56:42 -0400
To: "Frank Ferrante" <fferrante () ieee org>, <ieeeusa-tpc () ieee org>,
"ieeeusa-ccip" <ieeeusa-ccip () ieee org>
Subject: Re: Worth Magazine on Broadband

All,
My point being that we need to be cognizant of other (presumably reputable)
points of view, and use our position statements to address the issues they
malign. Reading this article is an eye opener. There is some truth in it,
mixed
with a lot of (probably incorrect) statements or judgements. But Worth
carries 
a lot of weight in the public arena, and more than the author must have
agreed with the story...they have two levels of editing. In the Broadband
case, we need to lay out a balanced, technical/market case that refutes
points made here and elsewhere which are axiomatic to some. Please read
Worth.
Ralph
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: Frank Ferrante <mailto:fferrant () bellatlantic net>
> To: Ralph W. Wyndrum Jr. <mailto:rww () monmouth com>  ; ieeeusa-tpc () ieee org ;
> ieeeusa-ccip <mailto:ieeeusa-ccip () ieee org>
> Sent: Thursday, June 27, 2002 7:00 PM
> Subject: Re: Worth Magazine on Broadband
>
> Ralph,
>  
> I'm not sure why you passed this around but it incites me to riot.  I have
> lived through so many statements from good intentioned writers saying we have
> now reached to top.  We don't need to go any further.   We can meet all our
> needs with 19.2K.  BULL!
>  
> I don't believe that Worth Magazine is worth it.   Broadband is dead is
> ridiculous.  
>  
>  I can list hundreds of needs for home broadband.  Industry has always been
> looking for that hard to identify application that they feel will fill the
> demand for bits.    I believe the Killer AP is here and the world doesn't
> recognize it yet.   It is the combination of all the things that the public
> needs to make their lives easier.   Electric power control and the dozens of
> minor, low data rate, systems that can be controlled in homes can add up fast
> when coupled with entertainment video, health monitors, eHealth video needs,
> etc.    Fiber to the home is starting to make more sense.  As Alen says, it is
> here -- I believe it is coming and by 2005 we will see more and more of it.
> Alen also is sold on 10Mb Ethernet and I agree this is a viable service but it
> is still not the end of the road.
>  
>  Cable companies have redesigned most of the networks and are preparing now to
> offer voice with their entertainment services (of course they may go broke
> first, but once they fail someone else will buy their assets for 25 cents on
> the dollar and the system will continue.)   If the price and system design is
> right and the systems like ADSL, SDSL( Symmetric needed for the public more
> than for just server sites) , Cable Modem, Satellite VSAT internet access
> arrangements (e.g., DirecPC) continue to be filtered into the public domain,
> broadband above 500k will become a norm - I predict that this will be a norm
> by 2005. The services just listed are carrots.    The are starting the process
> of home users getting use to broadband.
>  
> I also believe Alen's 10 Mbps Ethernet is real and will grow.  But it is not
> the replacement for XDSL or Cable Modem - it is a competitor.   It is another
> step in the right direction.  By the time the public hangs it hat on broadband
> Ethernet, something else will come along.  Optical switching and uses of the
> carrier's Dense Wave Division Multiplexing to compete with SONET is happening
> in the backbone.  This will allow even more digital bandwidth to be offered
> than we could even now imagine.   Carriers like Cable and Wireless have
> integrated DWDM into all of their systems and are now waiting for the market
> to stop its foolishness.
>  
>  Little by little, wireless is happening.  3G wireless is happening.
> Bluetooth is happening.  Broadband LANs in the homes using alternatives like
> Bluetooth, 802.11a and b, 802.15, 802.16, and the host of new
> 802.11c,d,e,f,g,... are now on the books.    Two years ago hardly anyone
> thought it would be possible.  They are now promoting 4G.  Mobility is a key
> source for future demand.   These are not 500k yet in all circles but it isn't
> far off.  
>  
> The home will get broadband - next step, the mobile individual will want it
> also.  
>  
>  New combination phones and PCs are coming out.   With computers getting
> smaller, cooler (software increases and chips smarter and smaller), and linked
> with Bluetooth, and the host of wireless LAN and WAN designs now on the street
> and growing, I predict that we will all have broadband in the home soon like
> we have color TV.   HDTV is slowly entering the market and it will grow.
> Healthcare for elderly wanting to stay at home has broadband features.   Use
> of flash cards like we use in toll booths and in gas stations with swipe
> devices is moving into the next step.   We will have chips attached to food
> products, our refrigerator, our doors, our heating and cooling units,
> ourselves.  Then with low speed we will be able to control our lives remotely
> using computers to the home using our computer-phones.
>  
> My neighbors are not technical yet one by one they are switching to the
> currently available broadband and loving it.  I consider them a microcosm of
> the mid level population.   They do not recognize the issues with security of
> their systems and they believe that when they send credit card information
> over the web their protected.  Of course the reason for this is that credit
> card companies insure their users and limit fraudulent use to $50 (generally).
> This isn't "Trust" yet.
>  
> Microsoft just announced that they believe its time to redesign the computer
> so that Security can be built into the chips.   Many have scoffed, but I did
> this with BB&N back in the 70's for the military and it is the only real way
> to guarantee some security within personal computer systems.   The Internet
> Engineering Task Force (IETF) is working diligently on methods to implement a
> global PKI operation.  Their biggest hurdle is how best to provide "Trust"
> that the certificates linked to Domain Names and IP addresses is capable to be
> supported by the process.   If they succeed and if Microsoft, with the call to
> Intel and its Chip competitor to move out and do this now, is listened to (I
> don't own any Microsoft but I do own Intel), then the demand for the new
> computers with security built in will drive sales through the ceiling.    I
> read the other day that their is a definite trend occurring where the remote
> rural homes have exceeded the urban homes in getting wireless and in getting
> the newer broadband wireless.   The carriers found it too costly to bury cable
> and fiber to support the demand so they are going wireless and using their
> latest and best technology.   Industry has been moving to rural areas and they
> all want broadband for themselves as well as for their employees in homes
> nearby or remote from the home office.
>  
> I could go on and on but, no need.   I can name names and count heads.
> Broadband is no way dead.  In fact it is just getting started.   It is in its
> embryo form.  
>  
> Frank
> > ----- Original Message -----
> > From: Ralph W. Wyndrum Jr. <mailto:rww () monmouth com>
> > To: ieeeusa-tpc () ieee org ; ieeeusa-ccip <mailto:ieeeusa-ccip () ieee org>
> > Sent: Wednesday, June 26, 2002 11:02 PM
> > Subject: Worth Magazine on Broadband
> >
> > Colleagues,
> > I simply quote here from the latest June Issue, written by Robert X. Crixley,
> > a name I do not know, but have seen on trade journal and other mag bylines
> > over the last two years.
> > "Broadband is Dead. ....in excess of 500kb/s, it is not viable. "
> > "The Local phone companies have little incentive to put money into DSL's.
> > .........Look at the future DSL sales picture for DSL's...declining"
> > And the story gets worse. I believe part of it, but I think it is far to
> > pessimistic. Nonetheless, it is what it is and will affect many Americans,
> > given the mags' circulation.
> > Please read it.
> > Ralph
> > Ralph W. Wyndrum Jr.
> > Executive Engineering Consultant
> > Wyndrum Associates
> > 732-219-0005(V), -0006(Fx)


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