IP: It May Finally Be Showtime For DVRs

[David Farber <dave () farber net>]

> From: Dewayne Hendricks <dewayne () warpspeed com>
>
> [Note:  This item comes from reader Mike Cheponis.  I got my own ReplayTV 
> 4000 on Thursday.  I was able to transfer a one hour PBS program that I 
> recorded to Mike Thursday night.  We both have T1's to our homes.  It 
> didn't take anywhere near the eight hours for a 30 minute program that the 
> article implies would be the case.  I'll be posting a report on my 
> experiences with the unit next week.  DLH]
>
> > It May Finally  Be Showtime  For DVRs
> > By Christopher Stern
> > Washington Post Staff Writer
> > Friday, January 18, 2002; Page E01
> >
> > A year ago, the future of digital video recorders -- those boxes that 
> > automatically record television shows on a hard drive -- looked uncertain.
> > Consumers just weren't embracing the new technology, despite a run of 
> > television and print advertising. Most didn't even really understand what 
> > the things did.
> > But in the last few months the picture has begun to clear up. Of the two 
> > pioneers in the field, TiVo Inc. has emerged as a market leader, while 
> > SonicBlue Inc.'s ReplayTV has been reenergized under new ownership. About 
> > 1 million homes now have a digital recorder, counting hardware offered by 
> > satellite broadcasters and Microsoft's Ultimate TV.
> > Essentially, a digital video recorder, or DVR, stores programs on a hard 
> > drive instead of videotape. Users can record a show just by highlighting 
> > its title in an onscreen program guide and tapping a button on the 
> > remote; tap it twice and the show will be recorded every time it airs. 
> > And because the hard drive also automatically stores whatever's on, users 
> > can even pause or rewind live television.
> > Over this holiday season, some analysts saw TiVo round a corner with the 
> > public. Demand for the devices outstripped supply at some stores and 
> > online retailers, said Gordon Hodge, an analyst with Thomas Weisel Partners.
> > "I think DVR technology is really catching on," said Hodge, who suspects 
> > that TiVo may even beat his estimate of selling 90,000 devices in the 
> > final three months of last year.
> > Hodge is also betting that TiVo will reap huge returns from licensing its 
> > technology to other companies, such as Sony and DirecTV.
> > In 2001, more than 367,000 TiVo-based boxes were sold; Hodge predicts 
> > 700,000 units will sell in 2002. Meanwhile, the price of a TiVo unit has 
> > dropped from several hundred dollars to less than $100 in some cases. 
> > (Users also pay $10 a month for TiVo's program guide, or $250 for the 
> > "lifetime" of their DVR unit.)
> > TiVo President Morgan Guenther said yesterday that the company wants to 
> > drive the average price of a TiVo device down to $199, a level that "is 
> > important to breaking the market open."
> > Guenther predicted that digital video recorders will quickly become one 
> > of the hottest devices in consumer electronics, pointing to the history 
> > of other breakthrough media devices -- including the VCR, which TiVo and 
> > its rivals are hoping to replace.
> > TiVo's oldest rival, ReplayTV -- bought by SonicBlue in August -- is 
> > taking a different course. Instead of seeking to integrate its technology 
> > in other companies' devices, Replay is selling its boxes as stand-alone 
> > units. And its new ReplayTV 4000 series are premium devices that start at $699.
> > They not only store 320 hours of programming but also allow viewers to 
> > e-mail their programs to friends over a high-speed network connection. 
> > They can also be programmed to skip all commercials in stored shows.
> > SonicBlue chairman and CEO Ken Potashner says the new units are already 
> > making a profit. But analysts estimate that less than 5,000 ReplayTV 4000 
> > units sold in the last three months of the year and fewer than 50,000 
> > will sell in 2002.
>
> <snip>

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