IP: Analysis by Former Director of Military History, USAF Academy

[David Farber <dave () farber net>]

> Date: Fri, 21 Sep 2001 10:38:31 -0400
> From: Barry Frankel <bfrankel () PrincetonCapital com>
> To: Dave Farber <farber () cis upenn edu>
>
>
> From: Dr. Tony Kern, Lt Col, USAF (Ret)
>
> Recently, I was asked to look at the recent events through the lens of
> military history.  I have joined the cast of thousands who have written
> an "open letter to Americans."
>
>
> Dear friends and fellow Americans                 14 September, 2001
>
> Like everyone else in this great country, I am reeling from last week's
> attack on our sovereignty. But unlike some, I am not reeling from
> surprise. As a career soldier and a student and teacher of military
> history, I have a different perspective and I think you should hear it.
> This war will be won or lost by the American citizens, not diplomats,
> politicians or soldiers.
>
> Let me briefly explain.
>
> In spite of what the media, and even our own government is telling us,
> this act was not committed by a group of mentally deranged fanatics. To
> dismiss them as such would be among the gravest of mistakes. This attack
> was committed by a ferocious, intelligent and dedicated adversary. Don't
> take this the wrong way. I don't admire these men and I deplore their
> tactics, but I respect their capabilities. The many parallels that have
> been made with the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor are apropos. Not only
> because it was a brilliant sneak attack against a complacent America,
> but also because we may well be pulling our new adversaries out of caves 30
> years after we think this war is over, just like my father's generation
> had to do with the formidable Japanese in the years following WW II.
>
> These men hate the United States with all of their being, and we must
> Not underestimate the power of their moral commitment. Napoleon, perhaps the
> world's greatest combination of soldier and statesman, stated "the moral
> is to the physical as three is to one." Patton thought the Frenchman
> underestimated its importance and said moral conviction was five times
> more important in battle than physical strength. Our enemies are
> willing - better said anxious -- to give their lives for their cause.
>
> How committed are we America? And for how long?
>
> In addition to demonstrating great moral conviction, the recent attack
> demonstrated a mastery of some of the basic fundamentals of warfare
> taught to most military officers worldwide, namely simplicity, security and
> surprise. When I first heard rumors that some of these men may have been
> trained at our own Air War College, it made perfect sense to me. This
> was not a random act of violence, and we can expect the same sort of
> military competence to be displayed in the battle to come.
>
> This war will escalate, with a good portion of it happening right here
> In the good ol' U.S. of A.
>
> These men will not go easily into the night. They do not fear us. We
> Must not fear them. In spite of our overwhelming conventional strength as the
> world's only "superpower" (a truly silly term), we are the underdog in
> this fight. As you listen to the carefully scripted rhetoric designed to
> prepare us for the march for war, please realize that America is not
> equipped or seriously trained for the battle ahead. To be certain, our
> soldiers are much better than the enemy, and we have some excellent
> "counter-terrorist" organizations, but they are mostly trained for
> hostage rescues, airfield seizures, or the occasional "body snatch," 
> (which may
> come in handy). We will be fighting a war of annihilation, because if
> their early efforts are any indication, our enemy is ready and willing
> to die to the last man. Eradicating the enemy will be costly and time
> consuming. They have already deployed their forces in as many as 20
> countries, and are likely living the lives of everyday citizens. Simply
> put, our soldiers will be tasked with a search and destroy mission on
> multiple foreign landscapes, and the public must be patient and
> supportive until the strategy and tactics can be worked out.
>
> For the most part, our military is still in the process of redefining
> itself and presided over by men and women who grew up with - and were
> promoted because they excelled in - Cold War doctrine, strategy and
> tactics. This will not be linear warfare, there will be no clear
> "centers of gravity" to strike with high technology weapons. Our vast
> technological edge will certainly be helpful, but it will not be decisive. 
> Perhaps the
> perfect metaphor for the coming battle was introduced by the terrorists
> themselves aboard the hijacked aircraft -- this will be a knife fight,
> and it will be won or lost by the ingenuity and will of citizens and
> soldiers, not by software or smart bombs. We must also be patient with our
> military leaders.
>
> Unlike Americans who are eager to put this messy time behind us, our
> adversaries have time on their side, and they will use it. They plan to
> fight a battle of attrition, hoping to drag the battle out until the
> American public loses its will to fight. This might be difficult to
> believe in this euphoric time of flag waving and patriotism, but it is
> generally acknowledged that America lacks the stomach for a long fight.
> We need only look as far back as Vietnam, when North Vietnamese General Vo
> Nguyen Giap (also a military history teacher) defeated the United States 
> of America
> without ever winning a major tactical battle. American soldiers who
> marched to war cheered on by flag waving Americans in 1965 were reviled
> and spat upon less than three years later when they returned. Although
> we hope that Usama Bin Laden is no Giap, he is certain to understand and
> employ the concept. We can expect not only large doses of pain like the recent
> attacks, but! also less audacious "sand in the gears" tactics, ranging
> from livestock infestations to attacks at water supplies and power
> distribution facilities.
>
> These attacks are designed to hit us in our "comfort zone" forcing the
> average American to "pay more and play less" and eventually eroding our
> resolve. But it can only work if we let it. It is clear to me that the
> will of the American citizenry - you and I - is the center of gravity
> the enemy has targeted. It will be the fulcrum upon which victory or defeat
> will turn. He believes us to be soft, impatient, and self-centered. He
> may be right, but if so, we must change. The Prussian general Carl von
> Clausewitz, (the most often quoted and least read military theorist in
> history), says that there is a "remarkable trinity of war" that is
> composed of the (1) will of the people, (2) the political leadership of
> the government, and (3) the chance and probability that plays out on the
> field of battle, in that order. Every American citizen was in the
> crosshairs of last Tuesday's attack, not just those that were
> unfortunate enough to be in the World Trade Center or Pentagon. The will 
> of the
> American people will decide this war. If we are to win, it will be because 
> we have what it takes to
> persevere through a few more hits, learn from our! mistakes, improvise, 
> and adapt. If we can do
> that, we will eventually prevail.
>
> Everyone I've talked to In the past few days has shared a common
> frustration, saying in one form or another "I just wish I could do
> something!" You are already doing it. Just keep faith in America, and
> continue to support your President and military, and the outcome is
> certain.
>
> If we fail to do so, the outcome is equally certain.
>
> God Bless America
>
> Dr. Tony Kern, Lt Col, USAF (Ret)
> Former Director of Military History, USAF Academy



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