IP: educating the public about risk and uncertainty

[David Farber <dave () farber net>]

> Date: Sun, 28 Oct 2001 17:40:49 -0600
> To: David Farber <dave () farber net>
> From: Benjamin Kuipers <kuipers () cs utexas edu>
>
>
> Dave,
>
> How should the government and the press inform the public about ongoing
> terrorist threats?  As we have seen in the anthrax crisis,
>  - it may take time to know whether an attack is taking place at all,
>  - there are best-case and worst-case scenarios,
>  - the public has the right to know that appropriate action is being taken,
>    and the right to question and comment on those actions,
>  - our understanding of the situation changes with time,
>  - individuals want to know how they can help and how to protect themselves,
>  - individuals want to know how much risk they face,
>  - the public wants to know how much risk our society faces,
>  - the public wants to know who is responsible.
>
> We have also seen that frantic and fear-driven responses can have far
> more impact on our society than the actual attack.
>
> Can we devise a clear, standard way to communicate our evolving
> understanding of uncertain and risky situations?
>
> There will be more threats, more attacks, and more damage in the future.
> We need to be prepared to inform the public properly.
>
> A presentation of risk requires probabilities, but those numbers are
> meaningless unless calibrated against a standard spectrum of risks
> that people are familiar with, for example the risks of (a) crossing
> a busy street at a traffic light, (b) driving 100 miles on an
> Interstate highway, or (c) motorcycling the same 100 miles.
> (There are undoubtedly better examples to choose.)  Uncertainty and the
> changing state of knowledge require not just probabilities, but ranges
> of probabilities.
>
> These are sophisticated concepts.  To learn to understand them,
> people will need repeated exposure to information in the same format,
> and explicit education.  This has been done with reasonable success
> with information like nutrition labels on foods, and with polling
> information in Newsweek and USA Today.
>
> The tactic of terrorism is to create terror.  Fear, and the impact of
> fear, is often all out of proportion to the actual danger and destruction
> caused by the act itself.  Trustworthy knowledge fights terror, even
> in the face of real dangers.
>
> The American public has the right to expect straight information.  It
> also has the collective intelligence to use this information, if it is
> presented with clarity and integrity.  We have fallen short during the
> anthrax crisis, but we could be prepared for the next one.
>
> The IP list includes some people well qualified to design such a
> presentation (a difficult task, to create a simple presentation of
> complex and sophisticated information!).  It includes others who are
> in a position to put it into use.
>
> Knowledge is power.  It prevents panic and encourages right action.
> Arm our citizens with knowledge.
>
> Best wishes,
>
> Ben Kuipers
>
>
> Benjamin Kuipers, Professor         email:  kuipers () cs utexas edu
> Computer Sciences Department        tel:    1-512-471-9561
> University of Texas at Austin       fax:    1-512-471-8885
> Austin, Texas 78712 USA             http://www.cs.utexas.edu/users/kuipers


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