IP: Keeping Panic at Bay

[David Farber <dave () farber net>]

> Date: Sun, 21 Oct 2001 08:40:36 -0400
> From: "R. A. Hettinga" <rah () shipwright com>
> Subject: Keeping Panic at Bay
>
> http://www.nytimes.com/2001/10/21/opinion/21DIAM.html?todaysheadlines=&pagewanted=print
>
>
>
>
> October 21, 2001
>
> Keeping Panic at Bay
>
> By JARED DIAMOND
> LOS ANGELES
>
> The essence of terrorism is to kill or injure opponents in ways
> specifically designed to cause fear, and thus to disorganize the opposing
> society to a degree far out of proportion to the number of victims. Whether
> this strategy is used in wartime or against a nation at peace, the desired
> effect is the same. The German V-1 flying bombs and V-2 rockets launched
> against London in 1944 killed civilians in each attack, but their
> psychological effect on the population was far greater than the number of
> dead might suggest.
>
>
>
> We Americans are now experiencing terrorism for the first time on American
> soil, as well as forms of terrorism new in world history. But the
> phenomenon of terrorism itself is ancient. What can we learn from the past
> that could help us cope?
>
> We often suppose that it was the 20th century that introduced terrorism as
> a conscious tactic of war. It's true that bombing of civilians in World War
> II to break their morale elevated military terrorism to new technological
> heights. Yet low-tech military terrorism has been with us since the
> recorded origins of war, as illustrated by 19th century Ethiopian armies'
> castration of prisoners, Pizarro's conquistadores' chopping arms off Inca
> soldiers and the Spartans' murder of their Plataean prisoners, described
> 2,400 years ago by Thucydides. Apart from such wartime terrorism, terrorist
> raids by neighboring tribes were a chronic fact of traditional life for New
> Guinea highlanders - much as terrorist attacks have persisted against
> Israel for decades.
>
> Among societies targeted by terrorists, some cracked under the stress but
> others didn't. For instance, much to the surprise and disappointment of
> those bombing them, Londoners and German and Japanese city-dwellers did not
> crack during World War II. What explains that varying impact of terrorism?
> I can discern at least three factors: novelty, sense of helplessness and
> lack of warning.
>
> New forms of terrorism are most frightening in their first use, when the
> targeted society is unprepared psychologically as well as physically. This
> was true for the first use of chlorine gas in World War I, the first use of
> nerve gas in the Iraq-Iran war, and the introduction of smallpox into the
> New World by Europeans and their American descendants - inadvertently to
> the Aztecs and intentionally to some North American Indian tribes.
>
> Targets of terrorism tend to become most demoralized when their society
> appears to be helpless to protect them. Like terrorism itself,
> countermeasures against it have a psychological value far out of proportion
> to their effectiveness. For instance, on Sept. 10, 1940, when British
> anti-aircraft guns were first fired against the German bombers that had
> begun nightly raids on London on Sept. 7, their big roar gave an enormous
> boost to the morale of Londoners even though they hit only a few German
> planes.
>
> Terrorist attacks that cannot be seen or heard coming are more damaging to
> morale than those detectable before arrival. A lack of warning means that a
> possible attack must be feared constantly.
>
> Civilians in World War II did not crack under bombing attacks for several
> reasons. Over time, the attacks lost their novelty. The bombers were seen
> to be met by anti- aircraft fire and defending fighters. And bombs other
> than German V-2 rockets were delivered noisily or visibly, allowing
> civilians to prepare for attack.
>
> What has just happened to us in recent weeks is awful beyond anything that
> we have experienced previously. That makes it all the more important to
> understand events since Sept. 11 in full context.
>
> Before Sept. 11, we assumed that we were protected by the oceans and our
> nuclear arsenal. Without warning, we were catapulted in a single day from
> peace to a terrorist war, and then to bioterrorism within a month. The
> telescoping of our experience in this war, with its forms of terrorism
> unprecedented anywhere, is what makes the events of the past several weeks
> so incomprehensible and nightmarish.
>
>
> Other novel forms of terrorism probably await us, but a future attack can
> no longer shock us: in fact, the possibility of attacks is now a main focus
> of attention in the press and in conversation. While the first hijacked
> suicide planes and anthrax envelopes arrived without warning, we have
> already learned to see our world differently, scrutinizing unexpected
> envelopes and airline passengers for potential weapons. Although the
> effectiveness of these first countermeasures may be like that of London's
> first anti-aircraft barrage (few hits but a lot of noise), their
> sophistication and therefore effectiveness will increase with time. Though
> we may feel vulnerable, the United States is better able to devise and
> deploy countermeasures, whether against skyjacking or anthrax or any
> still-to-be- deployed threat, than any other nation in history.
>
> The current crop of terrorists, unlike the bombers of World War II, has no
> chance of conquering us or (realistically) of killing a large fraction of
> our population. They cannot destroy us; our biggest risk is our own panic.
> What we face is terrorism in the most elementary sense: actions whose
> hoped-for impact is paralysis of the target rather than direct damage from
> the action itself. We cannot appease these terrorists or surrender to them,
> any more than Londoners could give in under the Blitz. We will track them
> down, because we are much stronger than they and we have no other choice.
>
> Jared Diamond is a professor of physiology at the U.C.L.A. Medical School.
> His book ``Guns, Germs, and Steel: The Fates of Human Socie ties'' won a
> Pulitzer Prize.
>
> Copyright 2001 The New York Times Company | Privacy Information
>
> --
> -----------------
> R. A. Hettinga <mailto: rah () ibuc com>
> The Internet Bearer Underwriting Corporation <http://www.ibuc.com/>
> 44 Farquhar Street, Boston, MA 02131 USA
> "... however it may deserve respect for its usefulness and antiquity,
> [predicting the end of the world] has not been found agreeable to
> experience." -- Edward Gibbon, 'Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire'


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