Interesting People mailing list archives
IP: Re: Comms recovery seen over next quarter or two
From: David Farber <dave () farber net>
Date: Tue, 31 Jul 2001 14:18:18 -0400
Date: Tue, 31 Jul 2001 09:03:09 -0700 From: Ari Ollikainen <Ari () OLTECO com> Subject: Re: IP: Comms recovery seen over next quarter or two X-Sender: ari () mail olteco com To: farber () cis upenn edu Cc: dewayne () warpspeed comIn the short term, this year will certainly see a decline in the overall optical networking gear market, he said, with total worldwide revenues likely in the $23.4 billion range, down from almost $29 billion last year. Smith said this year's drop puts the market onto a more realistic path, noting that at the height of last year's euphoria, some analysts were forecasting that the optical networking market could reach $80 billion by 2004. "That is a big chunk of the entire world's GDP, and rational people have to question that," he said.Rational people would question statements such as the above ... One wonders which world Smith is living in? As a comparative, California's current annual state BUDGET is $103 billion. California's year 2000 GDP has been reported as $1.33 TRILLION making California now the worlds fifth largest economy... The World Bank's world GDP for 1999 was reported as $29 TRILLION. For 1999: US GDP was $8.4 trillion, Japan, $4.1 trillion, Germany, $2.1 trillion, France and UK, $1.4 trillion each, and Italy, $1.1 trillion. China's GDP was almost $1 trillion, Brazil, $743 billion, Spain, $552 billion. India's GDP, $442 billion, Mexico's, $429 billion. California's GDP was $1.2 trillion in 1999. [...snip...]David Rickey, president and chief executive of Applied Micro Circuits Corp., is even more optimistic than his peers. "We think we've hit the bottom," he said. Judging from the pace at which his backlog grew last year, and then shrank this year due to cancellations, he thinks the worst is over. "Our backlog is now close to zero, and we are seeing a lot less tendency toward cancellations, because there is nothing left to cancel. There is nowhere to go but up, but it sure is a bummer about the $1 billion in lost orders."The above implies that orders and production are in balance, not that there are no orders... Perhaps AMCC's Rickey doesn't want to face the possibility that there might be nowhere else to go except out of business?
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