IP: Re: Comms recovery seen over next quarter or two

[David Farber <dave () farber net>]

> Date: Tue, 31 Jul 2001 09:31:59 -0700
> From: "Robert J. Berger" <rberger () ultradevices com>
>
>
> I suspect they are still being optimisitc. What will change to cause a 
> large re-uptake of comm equipment buying (other than going back to pre y2k 
> enterprise purchase rate)? There are no more competetive carriers left. 
> The one place there is a temnpoary glut is in the inter-city/inter-region 
> fiber as companies like Level 3, Qwest, Williams, Global Crossing, have 
> now each completed 18k - 33k miles of fiber build and will not need to buy 
> much more equipment for a while.
>
> The Competetive Local Exchange carriers have been killed off by a 
> combination of the ILECs maintaining absolute control of the copper 
> infrastructure and the wireless companies killed off by a combination of 
> their own greed/stupidity/investor fickleness/technological mischoices and 
> prematurity.
>
> The ILECs are not going to aggressively build out new high bandwidth local 
> services and we can expect the cable modem business (really the CATV 
> business with a side cable modem business) to be focused on gouging the 
> couch potatos and not really investing in buildouts to upgrade their last 
> mile infrastructure.
>
> So without the last mile gap being filled, we will continue to be in a 
> Telecom Dark Ages led by feudal ILEC lords and their supporters in the 
> current administration...
>
>
> --
> Robert J. Berger
> UltraDevices, Inc.
> 257 Castro Street, Suite 223 Mt. View CA. 94041
> Email: rberger () ultradevices com http://www.ultradevices.com
> Voice: 408-882-4755 Fax: 408-490-2868



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