IP: Re: Fwd: the absence of the fantasy---er, Internet [Re: TOKYO ...3MBPS ADSL ...]

[Dave Farber <dave () farber net>]

> Date: Mon, 29 Jan 2001 00:56:36 -0800
> From: Robert J Berger <rberger () ultradevices com>
> To: farber () cis upenn edu, Brendan Kehoe <brendan () zen org>
> Subject: Re: IP: Fwd: the absence of the fantasy---er, Internet [Re: TOKYO
>  ...3MBPS ADSL ...]
>
> My feeling (and where I'm putting my time as per my new startup, 
> UltraDevices) is that "fixed" broadband wireless technologies using 
> unlicensed spectrum (such as the 5.8Ghz UNII band) is a good  way to break 
> through this logjam.
>
> There is no way the monoplies are going to accelerate deployment. If 
> anything, they are now slowing it down as they have crushed their only 
> competition (I.e. the Covads, Northpoints and other CLECs). From what I've 
> heard its as bad or worse in most other countries (maybe not Finland?)
>
> I don't expect the cellular companies to do anything about this other than 
> hype 3G. I don't see how the cellular companies that do pursue a major 3G 
> buildout will survive. They have to first spend Billions of Dollars (or 
> Marks, or Francs) on purchasing Spectrum and then spend Billions more to 
> completely replace their existing networks. And then they still won't have 
> enough spectrum to deliver always on high usage broadband. In fact, I 
> expect we'll see the equivilant of the real estate bubble crashes but this 
> time the banks will be pulled down by the unrepayable debts from the 
> cellular carriers in a few years.
>
> We are starting to see a grass roots explosion of 802.11 wireless ethernet 
> buildouts here in the US. This is both in the public "hot spot" markets 
> (i.e. wireless LANs in cafes, hotels, airports and other public spaces) as 
> well as thousands of ISPs taking 802.11b wireless LAN products and 
> twisting them into wireless MAN applications.
>
> I believe this is part of the long term trend of IP over Ethernet over 
> various physical layers. We have seen it in the LAN, we are seeing it in 
> the fiber optic MAN and now in the wireless NANs (Neighborhood Area Networks).
>
> My expectation is that this use of wireless ethernet will sneak up on the 
> monopoly carriers / ITU sponsored Cellular networks just the same way as 
> did Ehternet / Internet. It will allow us to once more undermine the 
> people who want to charge by the bit and by the second. It will allow us 
> to get many more people connected faster than just about any other 
> technique on the horizon....
>
>
> --
> Robert J. Berger
> UltraDevices, Inc.
> 257 Castro Street, Suite 223 Mt. View CA. 94041
> Voice: 408-882-4755 Fax: 408-490-2868
> Email: rberger () ultradevices com  http://www.ultradevices.com



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