IP: FCC's chief techie sees a wilder Net ride ahead-- UPenn Wharton

[Dave Farber <farber () cis upenn edu>]

From: Janos_Gereben <janos () netcom com>
Subject: http://www.nytimes.com/cnet/CNET_0_4_2817300_00.html
To: farber () central cis upenn edu (Dave Farber)
Date: Wed, 20 Sep 2000 17:39:08 -0700 (PDT)

IPs may indeed be interested in this!

FCC's chief techie sees a wilder Net ride ahead

September 20, 2000

By By KNOWLEDGE@WHARTON, CNET NEWS.COM

David Farber, chief technologist at the Federal Communications
Commission, has a promise for those stunned by the pace of change
in Internet developments over the past 10 years: In the decade to
come, they will face "an even wilder ride."

New technology will bring forth dramatic changes to the economics
behind the Internet as well as the backbone networks that deliver
the Internet to homes and businesses, Farber noted during a recent
workshop at Wharton, hosted by the Emerging Technologies Management
Research Program, the SEI Center for Advanced Studies and
Management, and the Wharton e-Business Initiative. Yet even as we
anticipate new technologies that can alter the course of our daily
lives, he cautioned, there are still problems that must be resolved
before such dramatic changes can be made.

In addition to his appointment to the FCC, Farber is a professor
of telecommunications systems in the computer and information
science department at Penn Engineering. He was a key witness for
the U.S. Department of Justice in its recent case against
Microsoft.

Some observers refer to the next major technology trend for the
Internet as "Internet Anywhere," Farber noted during his remarks.
"It's a reference to the expectation that upcoming technological
innovation will take businesses and consumers to 'easy ubiquity,'
making the Internet and other networks accessible from virtually
anywhere. For example, new technology means that the bandwidth on a
single strand of fiber will be roughly equivalent to the bandwidth
on the entire backbone network in the U.S. today. That means "we're
in for a lot of change."

Problems ahead

  Many of the innovations Farber referred to are
already apparent: More homes and businesses are accessing the
Internet via broadband DSL or cable connections--a vast improvement
from dial-up modems; mobile technologies are developing,
particularly in Europe and Japan, that will enable anyone to
'connect' without wires; and Bluetooth wireless communications
technology (being developed jointly by Intel and Microsoft) carries
with it the potential to connect virtually every part of life--from
the home security system to personal banking.

Farber was quick to point out, however, that many problems lie
ahead for businesses, consumers, and especially policy makers. "The
biggest issue right now is security. The economy is based more and
more on the Internet, and there are real concerns about the
infrastructure--how easy it is (to penetrate), how stable it is and
how vulnerable it is to attack." Recent examples of security
breaches have involved customers of Western Union and AOL. Earlier
this year, hackers brought down the Web site of IThe New York
Times./I "(People at IThe New York Times/I) should consider
themselves lucky," said Farber. "They got away with just a warning.
Imagine what would have happened if those people decided to plant
(counterfeit) articles about the economy."

Farber voiced fears about the combination of growing connectivity
and the lack of a tightly secured infrastructure: "We may be
building an empire on a very slippery basis, and we need to pay
serious attention to that," he noted.

Privacy is another issue for policy makers to contend with as "too
many small, hungry companies out there show little sensitivity to
long-term payoffs and much more sensitivity to short-term
payoffs...Networks tie personal records together, and people worry
about the privacy of their data. If I happen to lose this," Farber
said holding up his cellular phone, "what keeps someone from
accessing my bank accounts and health records?"

The no-spectrum specter

Farber also discussed concerns tied to
emerging trends in the wireless industry. "The U.S. has a big
problem. We don't have spectrum. The rest of the world is now
allocating spectrum. They have an additional band, so that it's
reasonable to start talking about broadband delivery. In this
country right now, we're not giving out any additional spectrum.
That's because television broadcasters currently occupy spectrum
space. A potential solution would be to move them into digital, but
no one wants to bid on spectrum they may never get, or might get by
2006. It doesn't sound like a good deal." How big is this problem?
It is one of the reasons the U.S. lags behind the Japan and Western
Europe in cellular technology, Farber said, adding that the
Japanese, for example, will be on third-generation handsets while
the U.S. will be on its first.

"The bottom line," he noted, "is that we have technology coming
out of our ears" that will inevitably come face-to-face with
regulatory issues. "Congress will try to pass laws, particularly
about privacy. Governments can and will exercise control over the
Internet. We might see governments coming together and starting to
establish rules for the Internet, particularly regarding content."
With regards to the regulation of spectrum, Farber conceded that
while something must be done to utilize the spectrum space
currently occupied by broadcasters, it is unlikely that changes
will be made anytime soon, particularly because of the strong
broadcast lobby in Washington. Farber tried to illustrate the
challenge that faces policy makers. "Regulation is like driving a
car at 100 mph with 50-foot vision; we're a little out of control."

He hopes to deliver a better understanding about technology during
his tenure at the FCC but knows that Washington still moves at the
pace of the old economy. "I could fill up a small room with all the
technologists in Washington and still have a lot of free space…It
would be useful to have a model to help us understand what happens
in this field. It's a little different than steel. Regulation takes
around three years. How many Internet generations does that amount
to?"

Despite the technical and regulatory issues associated with it,
new technology will bring people even closer together, make
information more accessible and extend our capabilities further,
Farber said. He offered an example of what he saw as the potential
for the future. "The next huge thing will be the telecommuters who
live where they want to live and work where there they want to
work. There is no reason why I shouldn't be able to live in New
Zealand and work in Silicon Valley. Who knows? Maybe then I'll show
up to work more."

To read more articles like this one, visit
Knowledge@Wharton.

All materials copyright #169; 2000 of the Wharton School of the
University of Pennsylvania./i/font