IP: how long until yottabits?

[Dave Farber <farber () central cis upenn edu>]

To: farber () central cis upenn edu
From: Craig Partridge <craig () aland bbn com>
Date: Mon, 10 Jun 96 10:22:16 -0700
Sender: craig () aland bbn com




[For IP if useful...]


A group of us were playing around with the numbers from the wonderful
NY Times piece this morning on what sizes come after giga- and tera-.


Network traffic is more than doubling every year, so let's say it is between
doubling and tripling, which means between every 6 and 10 years we grow
by a factor of 1000.  We're roughly at a gigabit this year, so we hit...


    terabits  between 2002 and 2006
    petabits  between 2008 and 2016
    exabits   between 2014 and 2026
    zettabits between 2020 and 2036
    yottabits between 2026 and 2046


Food for interesting thoughts...  Like the theoretical capacity of a fiber
is measured in terabits, so you need at least billions of fibers for one
yottabit link.  You probably need ZHz (zetta Hz) processors to handle
the traffic.  And many of us will still be working in 2026.  All, of
course, assuming the curves continue out that far :-).


Craig Partridge
craig () bbn com