Why is it I will not sleep better (silly question, given the following why

[David Farber <farber () central cis upenn edu>]

                    RFE/RL Daily Report


                                        No. 212, 4 November 1993


                              RUSSIA


GRACHEV COMMENTS ON DOCTRINE.  At a press conference on 3
November, Defense Minister Pavel Grachev commented on Russia's new
military doctrine.  He criticized the defunct parliament for
passing legislation damaging to the military, most notably by
expanding draft exemptions and including a clause in the Law on
Defense limiting the size of the military to no more than 1% of
the total population. The draft exemptions are blamed by the
military for causing an unprecedented personnel shortfall, and it
is possible that they may be altered by presidential decree.
Grachev's criticism of the limit on military strength raises
doubts as to whether the current plan to cut force size to 1.5
million by 1995 will be implemented, or whether a larger force
will be created. Grachev also noted that the doctrine will
incorporate both offensive and defensive options, and that Russian
military equipment capabilities will not fall below Western
levels. His remarks were carried in Russian and Western news
media. John Lepingwell, RFE/RL, Inc.


NUCLEAR WEAPONS AND THE NEW DOCTRINE.  One striking feature of the
doctrine is Russia's willingness to consider the first use of
nuclear weapons.  The non-first-use of nuclear weapons was a
central feature of Soviet policy, at least in rhetoric, if not in
reality. (Information concerning Soviet war plans that emerged
after the collapse of the Warsaw Pact indicated that first-use was
an option for Soviet planners.) However, the conditions under
which such use might be possible are unclear. During Grachev's
remarks, as carried by Radio Moscow, he noted that Russia would
not use force except in self defense and that it would observe
"the guarantees of not using nuclear weapons against signatory
states to the nuclear nonproliferation treaty (NPT) of 1 July
1968, which do not possess nuclear weapons." The latter may be a
veiled reference (or threat) to Ukraine, which has not yet
ratified the NPT, and which claims to possess nuclear weapons.
John Lepingwell, RFE/RL, Inc.


DOCTRINE WILL NOT BE PUBLISHED. Valerii Manilov, deputy chairman
of the Russian Security Council, told ITAR-TASS on 3 November that
the full text of the new doctrine will not be published, although
some of its provisions will appear in the press. He noted that
President Boris Yeltsin does not intend to address the country
concerning the doctrine and that the means of implementing the
doctrine have yet to be elaborated.  John Lepingwell, RFE/RL, Inc.