Various PR China science activities, related to computers & policy

[David Farber <farber () central cis upenn edu>]

From: 
 Dr. David K. Kahaner

ABSTRACT. The Institute for Future Technology, activities, especially
with respect to lunar base plans.

Much of the information contained herein was provided to me by

     Mr. Hiroei Fujioka
     President, The Institute for Future Technology
     Tomiokabashi Bldg
     2-6-11 Fukagawa, Koto-ku, Tokyo 135 JAPAN
      Tel: +81 3 5245-1011; Fax: +81 3 5245-1061

In addition, Mr. Hiroo Hieda (Manager, Research Division) and Mr. Sung-
Joon Roh (Senior Fellow) were also very helpful.

The Institute for Future Technology (IFTECH) was founded in 1971 as a
nonprofit corporation to promote research on issues related to S&T.
Activities focus on trends in science and technology and future problem
areas in the social economy. IFTECH's founding was prefaced by a team
visit to the US think tanks in 1969 and the resulting decision that a
technologically oriented think tank should be established in Japan. It
is currently a foundation under the Science and Technology Agency (STA),
which is a part of the Prime Minister's Office. Current staff is about
70 (42 full time, 28 two-year temporaries) plus 10-15 part time. IFTECH
is commissioned (mostly by Japanese Government agencies and affiliated
organizations, plus municipal and other public organizations) to perform
about 70 project studies yearly, over 600 contracts since founding.

Major areas of study are
  
 * Science policy and new energy systems
 * Space development
 * Technology forecasting and technology assessment
 * Human science frontiers
 * Telecommunications and information processing
 * Social systems and urban development, environment
 * Disaster management and social safety
 * Structural changes in industry and the economy


Mr Fujioka estimates that Telecommunications is the largest effort
(30-40%), Science policy (15%), with other fields occupying the balance.
IFTECH was originator of the STA's Technology Forecast Survey (see my
report, "sta.93", 8 June 1993).

One of my interests in IFTECH centered on the Institute's literature,
which mentions "studies of cognitive science and AI to discover the
human mechanisms of recognition and learning, and to apply these
mechanisms to a new computer system and the brain mechanism", as well as
"investigation for a promotion program of the AI industry", and
"investigation of AI applications in space development." However, Mr
Fujioka stated that very little work has been done on these areas
recently, so these are not discussed further in this report.

I was also interested to hear about IFTECH's conception of a lunar base.
This is a futuristic project that involved a study group of 200
scientists in a long term plan for lunar exploration. The study proposed
a lunar penetration in 1996, moving on from there to a fully manned
permanent lunar base. An English language, Executive Summary, "Report of
the Moon Base and its Resources, Exploratory Study", was released about
two years ago. It was developed by the study group mentioned above with
input and collaboration from Western scientists, and in particular was
published shortly after "America's Space Exploration Initiative" was
completed in 1991, but see also below.

The report proposed a five phase program as follows.

         Fundamental Concept

  The fundamental aims for developing the Moon base will be: 1)
scientific observation from the Moon, 2) the establishment of an outpost
for conducting various technical experiments to explore the other
planets, particularly Mars, and 3) the extraction of fusion fuel,
specifically, helium-3.

   The base that is to be built on the Moon needs to have a steadfast
operation ability and a housing facility. The subjects we embodied in
our project during the process of consideration are; 1) scientific
observation of the universe, solid planetary science, in-space physics,
etc. 2) a life-support system, 3) energy, 4) base construction, 5) a
system to utilize resources, 6) a transportation system, 7) a social
system, 8) an information and communications system, including robotics,
and 9) logistics to the other planets, particularly Mars.

  In our project we have created a five-phase increment model. In the
process of formulating the phases of the model, key consideration was
given to whether the mission is manned or unmanned, the size of manned
missions, time required for the utilization of space resources, the size
of the particular science observation, and an available operational site
on the Moon.

  The success of the development of the activities on the Moon is
totally dependent upon the mission objective and the incorporation of
technology infrastructure (technological advancement). We have
considered both in establishing the time of the activities. The required
cost schedule for the project has not been determined.

  The size of the Moon base will depend on the number of residents, the
location of the base, the targeted depth of the science observation, the
estimated amount of the resources that will be needed, and the amount of
energy that will be required.

     Phase One

  Phase 1 will consist of precursor missions, with the absence of human
presence on the moon. The main objective is scientific observation,
including data collection to be used in preparation for the construction
of the Moon base, which will come in a much later phase.  The scientific
area of the mission will include; small optical interferometer
placement, pre-investigation for observation in the next phase,
observations of the geomagnetosphere and balanced infrared rays, and the
collection of surface composition samples for analysis on Earth. In
other areas, the satellite-mounted remote sensors and robot rover(s) on
the surface will investigate the Moon base site and attempt to analyze
the regolith; by conducting on-site investigations, and by collecting
samples for analyzation on Earth. Surface mapping and mapping of the
location of resources will also be attempted.

  Transportation from Earth to the Moon will be provided by our H-2
rocket. The H-2 can carry the substantial payload of the satellite and
the Moon Lander to the Moon's surface. The Space Station Freedom
project, behind its originally scheduled completion date, may be able to
offer assistance to the project. The rover(s) and the robot on the
Moon's surface will have a self-decision making device embodied in them,
as well as being remote-controlled from the Earth station. The power
required, which is estimated at approximately 20 kilowatts, will be
supplied by a solar power generator.

     Phase Two

  In Phase 2, missions will be manned. The main objective of Phase 2 is
to prove that men are able to live and stay on the Moon for a few days
to prepare for the base expansion that will come in a later phase. We
propose to place a group of eight people on the Moon for a few Moon
days. This will occur in the first part of this phase, and will increase
to a few days and nights in the second or last part, with the location
being either on the Moon's equator, or an adjacent site on the surface:
These are two preselected spots, and one will be chosen at a later date.
The science area of the mission will begin to provide a weather forecast
of the Moon, an infrared ray assisted all-weather survey, and other
observations will be made with a small-size infrared optical telescope:
the emplacement of the Very-Long Baseline Interferometer (VLBI) between
the Moon and Earth will demonstrate its higher resolution capability. In
the field of solid planetary science, emphasis will be placed on the
Moon's heat flow rate, gamma ray surveys, soil physics, and a wider
range of the study of geostatics (earthquakes). However, most of the
science observation in this phase may be shifted to Phase 3 if the main
objective needs more attention than the science area. Construction
components for a high quality life support system, similar to the one
embodied in the space station Freedom, will be transported from Earth
along with an experiment module, a logistics cartridge, and a vegetable
module. The food and other nutrients will be transported from Earth: the
vegetable module will only be in the experimental stage in this phase.
and will not provide products for consumption at this time. The Moon
soil will shield the modules to protect them from a variety of radiation
and heat. As to power required to operate the base, a solar heat
generator, including its fuel cells, will provide 35 kilowatt
electricity. In the second part of the phase, a small, surface nuclear
power plant will start to generate 300 kilowatt electricity. This will
begin the power plant's ten-year, non-refueled operation. As noted, in
the second part of Phase 2 the men will experience Moon nights, test the
resource pilot plant, and collect information about the resource site,
including observations about the selected location. In this phase, the
volume of the mass of the payload to be transported to the Moon is
estimated to reach 100 metric tons. A transportation network system that
includes a number of fuel stations between Earth and the Moon needs to
be formulated. The vehicles utilized in this phase include a Higher Load
Launch Vehicle (HLLV; similar in concept to the Advanced Launch Vehicle
in U.S.) and a new generation launch vehicle to be developed from our
H-2 rocket. Its concept will be represented in Shuttle-C and Energia,
the Moon lander, and a series of rovers, attended or unattended by man.
These will be used for construction and transportation of robots. More
autonomous function will be placed in the unmanned rovers and robots
besides their remote-controlled operations.

     Phase Three

  In Phase 3, the number of people on the Moon will possibly increase to
thirty-two. These people will be separated into groups occupying two or
three bases, however, they will connected by an extensive communication
system. In this phase, the people will stay on the Moon continuously for
three months. The main objective of Phase 3 is to provide a practical
and conclusive assessment of the Moon's resources, and emphasis will be
placed on technical verification of helium-3. In the area of scientific
observation, an increased number of experts will be involved in
operating medium-sized infrared optical telescopes, operating the
interferometer to observe sub-millimeter waves, mapping gamma rays, and
attempting  to identify neutrinos. Studies of the soil and crust
composition, and a geological survey of the surface are also going to be
conducted. Regarding resources processing, oxygen production is expected
to start at 1 ton per year, and will reach 200 tons per year in the
second half of this phase. Experiments on metal smelting will identify
the most feasible method to provide products used in space activities.
We have estimated that the volume of cargo that will have to be
transported between Earth and the Moon for satisfactory operation of the
Moon base will amount to hundreds of tons. The transportation network
may be required to establish a space station that orbits the Moon, in
addition to the above noted network. The employment of the reusable
orbiter may be advantageous, considering its ability of aerobraking.
This may also help us create an efficient method for the Moon landing.

     Phase Four

  In Phase 4, the number of experts on the Moon will increase to a
minimum of 64 and possibly to a maximum of 125. These experts will be
spread between two to three diversified habitation centers (the
habitation areas may be located underground for protection from the
falling meteoroids). The main objective of Phase 4 is to accomplish the
creation of an extraction system for Helium-3. A medium-sized production
factory will demonstrate its capabilities by processing the lunar soil
into glassware and blocks.

     Phase Five

  In this phase, the infrastructure of the Moon will become
self-sufficient, similar to a country on Earth. A variety of products
will be produced and manufactured on the Moon, for export to Earth, and
consumption on the Moon. Helium-3 production may result in generating
electric power of 1000 MW or more on the Moon. The study of planetary
science will be promoted to the fullest extent.

 (Please contact either me or Mr. Fujioka for copies.)

To support the plan (which is still very much a paper project) the Lunar
and Planetary Society was formed in 1992, with Mr. Shigebumi Saito as
Chairman. Its founding is premised on the idea that after the turn of
the century the effort in the direction of development and exploration
of the moon and planets will become a core part of the [Japanese] space
activities, in particular that "exploration of an abundant resource
deposited in the moon and in space that can be utilized for the earth's
alternative energy source." The Society hopes to "start an international
endeavor that focuses on the lunar exploration and development, well
balanced in the priorities between manned and unmanned portions. On top
of that, we need to continue a number of plans to explore Mars and
beyond." To that end, a series of conferences and workshops have been
held. For example,

July 15-17 1992 (Tsukuba) 
  Future Space Activity Workshop/Lunar Base Workshop '92
   for which a detailed proceedings (in Japanese) is available.

and

Jan 21-22 1993
  Workshop on Scientific Aspects in Planetary Exploration
 
Mr. Fujioka explained that details on the most recent workshop can be
obtained from Dr. Hitoshi Mizutani (Tel: +81 427 51 3911), but he
emphasized to me that there is no government approval for major lunar
projects at this time, although a three-year paper study developed by
Dr. Tsutomu Iwata (Tel: +81 298 52 2250) is waiting for a decision by
the Japanese government.

The 1991 plan is the latest that IFTECH has published. However, five
study groups within the Lunar and Planetary Society have been working on
the project, and five additional reports (in Japanese) will be completed
around August 1993. The study groups will report on the following.

  * Lunar & Planetary Architecture
  * Nuclear Power Propulsion
  * Lunar Observatories
  * Utilization of Micromachines on Lunar & Planetary project
  * Utilization and control for "microbes"

Budget estimates have not been prepared formally. Earlier estimates are
probably inaccurate. Mr. Fujioka acknowledges that some rough estimates
have recently been developed, based on worldwide space activity budget
trends. (I have not seen these.) The Japanese government, through MITI,
NASDA and ISAS are involved in the planning, MITI through AIST the
Agency of Industrial Science and Technology, and ISAS (Institute of
Space and Astronautical Science) mostly associated with environmental
activities from space. MITI will begin a feasibility study of lunar
resource utilization in the 1996 fiscal year. IFTECH and the Lunar and
Planetary Society cooperates with MITI in planning activities.
  
Space related activities surface in many Japanese organizations. I will
have some follow-up reports on a few of these, in particular from ISAS.