Re: Actual Climate Change Thread

[chris () blask org]

--- On Sun, 11/29/09, RandallM <randallm () fidmail com> wrote:

> Chris,

> I am trying to keep up here so I want to know if this
> summary is correct:

OK.

> You feel Martin is arguing a "climate" specific area.
> You argue it is "Global". 

It seems that Martin is arguing that there are only micro climates (i.e. the US plains) but no such thing as a global 
climate.  I am arguing that the existence of micro-climates does not negate the existence of the single macro/global 
climate.  Indeed, since the global atmosphere/aquasphere/biosphere is a single contained system (akin to a snow globe) 
it should be obvious that it is connected into a single system.

> But you are arguing or showing it to be a cycle which has happen a number of times.

"Cyclic" gives it more regularity than I would imply.  If you look at the "climate" (the gaseous and liquid envelope 
surrounding the earth) from beginning to end the most macro-cycle starts with the out-gassing of molten stone, has a 
middle section dominated by an evolving set of hydrocarbons and an ending that seems likely to be as part of the outer 
shell of our sun when it gets to the Red Giant stage.

Inside the (from our perspective) interesting section in the middle, there have been various phases, most of which 
would still be fatal to us.  Within the section that wouldn't be fatal to us, there has been various phases and some 
recurring oscillations (like the ice-ages over the last few hundred millennia), but none of those are truly long term 
and could be upset or interrupted by a variety of single events (such as the Yellowstone caldera popping or a good 
sized comet strike).

My primary argument is that the current state of the earth's atmosphere is a fortunate happenstance that we happen to 
be evolved to enjoy because it happened to be here when we were busy evolving.  It isn't permanent or preordained at 
any level, and is at least as likely to become fatal to our delicate sensibilities as it is to stay within the narrow 
boundaries we hold so dear.

> You feel Tomas is not bringing enough "man" causes to the
> table and you feel man has added greatly along with natural causes.

I first like to determine whether the parties I am discussing this topic with believe the earth somehow "wants" to 
maintain the climate we enjoy.  

Some such people believe a deity is watching over us and that He will make sure everything stays to our liking - there 
isn't much point debating climate cycles with such folks, however wonderful they may otherwise be.  

Other folks seem to argue that mankind is just not capable of impacting the climate.  My clumsy generalization for this 
view is: "we are weak and puny
and can't be trusted to tie our shoes, how could we pitiful creatures affect something as large as the global climate?" 
 Folks with this view are worth debating these things with, because I think the issue is primarily a matter of 
explaining the past, current and forecastable future actions of the human species.  If it is simply a matter of scale, 
then the debate at least has defined boundaries to discuss.

For my part, obviously, I think we are certainly capable of rising to the challenge of whatever scale is necessary to 
impact global climate.  I believe we will in future go so far as to "terraform" other planets, which is exactly that 
scale of climate engineering, intentional in this case.  

I also believe that we will in the end take control of the Earth's global- - and yes, Martin, also micro- - climates 
and manage them like we do other large systems.  Between now and then we need to continue to increase our capabilities 
in understanding the existing climate(s), our ability to intentionally add or subtract factors to influence change, and 
not least our computing capabilities to allow us to model systems of this scale (which we can do only extremely crudely 
today, leading to all these debates).

-best

-chris



      
_______________________________________________
Fun and Misc security discussion for OT posts.
https://linuxbox.org/cgi-bin/mailman/listinfo/funsec
Note: funsec is a public and open mailing list.