RE: Risk Assesment Tools

["Mikhail A. Utin" <mutin () commonwealthcare org>]

Hello List,
I once wrote that risk assessment/estimate based on quantitative method is statistically incorrect. No vendor can claim 
having reliable statistics for following modeling. The problem is in infinite (and mostly unknown) security events and 
infinite number of exposures.  Try first answering how many malware species we have. If you can get such number then 
move to identify how each of them will affect each computer on this planet. And that is only a part of the proble. Next 
is to identify a monetary value of each security event on each computer.

So, do not trust automation tools when a vendor promises "value".

Qualitative method will work, because it is based on an expert's estimate and may involve personally collected 
statistics (yet of course unreliable), which gives a "value" but it is based only on personal understanding of risks 
and exposures. 

Regards

Mikhail Utin, CISSP, PhD



-----Original Message-----
From: listbounce () securityfocus com [mailto:listbounce () securityfocus com] On Behalf Of Ricardo Raga
Sent: Wednesday, July 04, 2012 8:00 AM
To: 'Anwar Khan'; security-basics () securityfocus com; pen-test () securityfocus com
Subject: RES: Risk Assesment Tools


www.smart-ra.com


Ricardo Raga
Segurança da informação - TI

Fast Solutions
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