Re: constant FEC errors juniper mpc10e 400g

[Mark Tinka <mark@tinka.africa>]

On 4/22/24 09:47, Vasilenko Eduard via NANOG wrote:

> Assume that some carrier has 10k FBB subscribers in a particular municipality (without any hope of considerably 
> increasing this number).
> 2Mbps is the current average per household in the busy hour, pretty uniform worldwide.
> You could multiply it by 8/7 if you like to add wireless -> not much would change.
> 2*2*10GE (2*10GE on the ring in every direction) is 2 times than needed to carry 10k subscribers.
> The optical ring may be less than 20 municipalities - it is very common.
> Hence, the upgrade of old extremely cheap 10GE DWDM systems (for 40 lambdas) makes sense for some carriers.
> It depends on the population density and the carrier market share.
> 10GE for the WAN side would not be dead in the next 5 years because 2Mbps per household would not grow very fast in the 
> future - this logistic curve is close to a plateau.
> PS: It is probably not the case for Africa where new subscribers are connected to the Internet at a fast rate.

As a function of how much Internet there is in Africa, there really 
aren't that many optical transport service providers. Some 
countries/cities/towns have more than they need, others have just one. 
But in general, you would say there is massive room for improvement if 
you surveyed the entire continent.

Typically, it will be the incumbents, alongside 2 or 3 competitives. In 
fact, in some African countries, only the incumbent may be large enough 
to run an optical backbone, with all the competitives leasing capacity 
from them.

It is not uncommon to find the closest competitor to an incumbent for 
terrestrial services being the mobile network operator, purely because 
they have some excess capacity left over from having to build the 
backbone for their core business, mobile. And, they are flush with cash, 
so a loss-making terrestrial backhaul business can be covered by the 
month's sales in SIM cards.

Truly independent transport providers are few and far between because 
access to dark fibre is not easy (either its lack of availability, the 
incumbent refusing to sell it, or its high price). For the few 
independent transport providers that do spring up, they will focus on a 
limited set of hot routes, and because competition on those routes may 
be wanting, prices and capacity would not be terribly attractive.

So the bulk of Africa's Internet really relies on a handful of key 
African wholesale IP Transit providers taking great effort into 
extending their network as deep into cities as they can, and using their 
size to negotiate the best prices for terrestrial backhaul from the few 
optical network operators that the market has. Those providers then sell 
to the local and regional ISP's, who don't have to worry about running a 
backbone.

All this means is that for those operators that run an optical backbone, 
especially nationally, 10G carriers are very, very legacy. If they still 
have them, it'd be a spin-off off the main core to support some old SDH 
customers that are too comfortable to move to Ethernet.

Metro backhaul and last mile FNO's (fibre network operators) who have 
invested in extending access into homes and businesses are a different 
story, with most countries having a reasonable handful of options 
customers can choose from. Like national backhaul, there is plenty of 
room for improvement - in some markets more than others - but unlike 
national backhaul, not as constrained for choice or price.

Mark.