Re: Waste will kill ipv6 too

[Owen DeLong <owen () delong com>]

Current ARIN policy contemplated as much as a /12 per provider and set a cap
there allowing a provider that needed more than that to only get additional /12s
rather than nibble boundary round-ups.

Owen

> On Dec 20, 2017, at 15:07 , Christopher Morrow <morrowc.lists () gmail com> wrote:
>
> On Wed, Dec 20, 2017 at 2:16 PM, Lee Howard <lee () asgard org> wrote:
>
> > I’ve tried several times to come up with a scenario that leads to
> > depletion in less than 200 years, and I haven’t managed it. Can you do it?
>
> during some ARIN discussions that revolved around Transition Technologies
> and allocations to large ISPs, there were more than a few folk batting
> around the idea that they may need to allocate a /24 or a /20 even to a
> single provider.
>
> I believe DT has a /19 assigned to them currently? how many /19's are there
> in the v6 space? (524288-ish)
> That's only ~100x the current number of active ASN in the field. It's
> unclear (to me) how many of those could/would justify a /19 equivalent, and
> how fast the ASN field is growing over time.
>
> 200 years seems optomistic, 20 years seems easy to imagine surpassing
> though. What's the sweet spot?