Truth Decay?? (via RAND Corporation)

["Dave Farber" <dave () farber net>]

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From: Mark <mark () tmtstrategies com>
Date: Thu, Jan 18, 2018 at 6:24 PM
Subject: DL- Truth Decay?? (via RAND Corporation)
To: Dave <dave () farber net>


https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR2314.html

Truth DecayAn Initial Exploration of the Diminishing Role of Facts and
Analysis in American Public Life

by Jennifer Kavanagh
<https://www.rand.org/about/people/k/kavanagh_jennifer.html>, Michael D.
Rich <https://www.rand.org/about/people/r/rich_michael_d.html>


Over the past two decades, national political and civil discourse in the
United States has been characterized by "Truth Decay," defined as a set of
four interrelated trends: an increasing disagreement about facts and
analytical interpretations of facts and data; a blurring of the line
between opinion and fact; an increase in the relative volume, and resulting
influence, of opinion and personal experience over fact; and lowered trust
in formerly respected sources of factual information. These trends have
many causes, but this report focuses on four: characteristics of human
cognitive processing, such as cognitive bias; changes in the information
system, including social media and the 24-hour news cycle; competing
demands on the education system that diminish time spent on media literacy
and critical thinking; and polarization, both political and demographic.
The most damaging consequences of Truth Decay include the erosion of civil
discourse, political paralysis, alienation and disengagement of individuals
from political and civic institutions, and uncertainty over national policy.

This report explores the causes and consequences of Truth Decay and how
they are interrelated, and examines past eras of U.S. history to identify
evidence of Truth Decay's four trends and observe similarities with and
differences from the current period. It also outlines a research agenda, a
strategy for investigating the causes of Truth Decay and determining what
can be done to address its causes and consequences.

Key Findings
What Is Truth Decay?

   - Truth Decay is defined as a set of four related trends: increasing
   disagreement about facts and analytical interpretations of facts and data;
   a blurring of the line between opinion and fact; an increase in the
   relative volume, and resulting influence, of opinion and personal
   experience over fact; and declining trust in formerly respected sources of
   factual information.

Is Truth Decay New?

   - This report explores three historical eras — the 1890s, 1920s, and
   1960s — for evidence of the four Truth Decay trends and compares those eras
   with the past two decades (2000s–2010s). Two of the four trends occurred in
   earlier periods: the blurring of the line between opinion and fact and an
   increase in the relative volume, and resulting influence, of opinion over
   fact. Declining trust in institutions, while evident in previous eras, is
   more severe today. No evidence of an increase in disagreement about facts
   and analytical interpretations of facts and data was seen in the earlier
   periods.

What Causes Truth Decay?

   - Four drivers, or causes, of Truth Decay are described: cognitive bias,
   changes in the information system (including the rise of social media and
   the 24-hour news cycle), competing demands on the educational system that
   limit its ability to keep pace with changes in the information system, and
   political, sociodemographic, and economic polarization. Various agents also
   amplify Truth Decay's trends.

What Are the Consequences?

   - The consequences of Truth Decay manifest in many ways. The most
   damaging effects might be the erosion of civil discourse, political
   paralysis, alienation and disengagement of individuals from political and
   civic institutions, and uncertainty about U.S. policy.

Recommendations
Unraveling the Complex System of Truth Decay Will Require Multifaceted and
Interdisciplinary Efforts

   - Interdisciplinary research and cooperation among research
   organizations, policymakers, educators, and other stakeholders will be
   necessary to shed light on the problem of Truth Decay and to develop a
   clearer understanding of the problem and devise possible solutions.

There Are Four High-Priority Areas of Research

   - Examine more closely how Truth Decay has manifested in the past at
   home and abroad, extracting lessons that can assist in the fight against
   Truth Decay.
   - Further explore Truth Decay trends, including such areas as how media
   content has changed over time, the ways in which the speed and nature of
   information flow have evolved, developments in the education system and its
   curricula, the ways in which polarization and political gridlock have (or
   have not) worsened, the erosion of civil discourse and engagement, and
   changes in the severity of uncertainty about U.S. policy.
   - Investigate the processes and mechanisms that connect Truth Decay to
   information dissemination, processing, and consumption; institutions,
   authorities, and intermediaries; polarization, engagement, and discourse;
   the benefits and challenges of technological advancement; and agency. Truth
   Decay as an interconnected system should also be explored.
   - Finally, develop and evaluate potential solutions and mitigations to
   the problems caused by Truth Decay. Priority areas include educational
   interventions; improving the information market; institutional development
   and rebuilding; bridging social divides; harnessing new technologies;
   behavioral economics, psychology, and cognitive science; and organizational
   self-assessment.



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