Re Bill Perry Is Terrified. Why Aren't You?

["Dave Farber" <farber () gmail com>]

Begin forwarded message:

> From: Thomas Leavitt <thomleavitt () gmail com>
> Date: January 7, 2017 at 5:01:16 PM EST
> To: jthorn () astro indiana edu
> Cc: farber () gmail com
> Subject: Fwd: [IP] Re Bill Perry Is Terrified. Why Aren't You?
>
> Your comment highlights a rather terrifying aspect of the contemporary situation, but referenced issue seems more a 
> symptom than a cause.
>
> My original question was "what triggered this sequencence of events" (including the one cited)? Has Russian behavior 
> changed to such a degree that efforts in this area are no longer feasible? Has American policy in this respect come 
> under control of a faction that is against continuing these efforts? Is this fallout from the situation in the 
> Ukraine? Why are the war drums suddenly being pounded so hard, when, facially, the actual strategic and tactical 
> balance remains overwhelmingly in our favor, at least from a pure "force projection capacity" standpoint?
>
> Looking at it pragmatically, from a conventional warfare standpoint, no other country has anywhere near the number of 
> hardened combat veterans in active and recent service that the United States has (however costly acquiring that 
> expertise has been). Russia and China's military and political establishments must be aware of how much of a 
> disadvantage that alone creates, even discounting all other factors. "Green" combatants are at a huge disadvantage 
> vs. hardened veterans.
>
> Why is our governing elite suddenly acting so threatened?  I consider myself a relatively informed citizen, but have 
> been unable to identify the triggering cause here, and that was the intent behind my somewhat plaintive complaint. 
>
> Thomas Leavitt
>
> ---------- Forwarded message ----------
> From: "Dave Farber" <farber () gmail com>
> Date: Jan 7, 2017 9:40 AM
> Subject: [IP] Re Bill Perry Is Terrified. Why Aren't You?
> To: "ip" <ip () listbox com>
> Cc: 
>
>
>
>
> Begin forwarded message:
>
> > From: Jonathan Thornburg <jthorn () astro indiana edu>
> > Date: January 7, 2017 at 11:44:03 AM EST
> > To: dave () farber net
> > Subject: Re: [IP] Re Bill Perry Is Terrified. Why Aren't You?
> >
> > Someone (who, if I've unwrapped the nested quoting correctly, may have
> > been Thomas Leavitt) asked:
> > > What has changed so fundamentally that we're now re-enmeshed in this
> > > lunacy? I'm baffled.
> >
> > One thing that's changed in the past year or so is that the decades-old
> > cooperative effort between the USA & Russia to switch research reactors
> > around the world to NOT use high-enriched uranium fuel, is now in slow
> > mottion at best, with USA/Russia cooperation essentially frozen.  (See,
> > e.g.,
> > http://www.sciencemag.org/news/2016/01/ridding-research-reactors-highly-enriched-uranium-take-decades-longer-projected
> > for more information.)
> >
> > There are still 74 known civilian research reactors around the world
> > which use high-enriched uranium fuel, and many of these are poorly guarded
> > against theft.  If a terrorist group were to steal some high-enriched
> > uranium fuel, they could have a decent chance of building a working
> > kiloton-sized (= can destroy square kilometers of a city) gun-type nuclear
> > bomb (probably built around an old artillery gun).  (In contrast, if they
> > were to steal plutonium, making that explode with more than truck-bomb
> > force would be hard: that would require implosion, which takes a lot of
> > engineering expertise).
> >
> > Killing 100K to 1M people with terrorist nuclear boms *probably* won't
> > start a "major" nuclear war, but the chances aren't exactly zero, either.
>
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