PSF: The '04 Aftermath, Part I

[David Farber <dave () farber net>]

Begin forwarded message:

From: Jon Delano <jon.delano () verizon net>
Date: November 4, 2004 5:05:03 AM EST
To: dave () farber net
Subject: PSF: The '04 Aftermath, Part I
Reply-To: Jon Delano <jon.delano () verizon net>

  
Dear Politically Savvy Friends,
 
     Your friendly correspondant has been on a bit of campaign 
whirlwind -- working 12 straight days (with one day off to celebrate 
Halloween with the kids), following Kerry from Philadelphia to Warren 
(OH) and Bush & Cheney in Western PA.  Needless to say, I'm sleepless 
in Pittsburgh.  So, forgive me, if it all seems a dull blurr.
 
     This morning, one-half of America wakes up in agony, wondering how 
it can survive 'four more years' of the same crowd in Washington.  The 
other half is exultant, convinced that God shines on this country with 
a strong leader who will bring this country to an even higher level of 
economic growth, prosperity, and morality.
 
     We are deeply divided as a nation, but think back to how you felt 
when others were elected -- Ronald Reagan and Bill Clinton -- or, for 
you old-timers, Richard Nixon and Jimmy Carter.  America is greater 
than its political leaders, always has been and always will be.  So to 
those despondant today, keep the faith.  And to those in political 
nirvana today, enjoy it.  It's never as good as it feels the day after!
 
     So what happened on election day, especially here in 
Pennsylvania?   In this abbreviated PSF Part I, let me offer my initial 
sleepless thoughts.
 
 
BEYOND THE BELTWAY:
 
The Kerry Bus Stalls in Ohio:
 
     If you look at the electoral college map, the Kerry campaign 
deserves more credit than it will get for a strong performance on 
election day.  Kerry swept through all of New England, picking up the 
former red (Bush) state of New Hampshire, cleaned up in the 
mid-atlantic states, even in once contentious New Jersey, and won a 
decisive, if narrow, victory in the must-win state of Pennsylvania.   
On the west coast, Kerry won all four Pacific states (California, 
Oregon, Washington, and Hawaii) with the expected exception of Alaska.
 
     As it turned out, Kerry even won many of the battleground Midwest 
states, winning Illinois (no doubt there), along with states thought to 
be in doubt like Michigan, Wisconsin, and Minnesota.  When all those 
electoral votes were in, Kerry had 252 votes, 18 short of the magic 
270.
 
     For his part, the president swept through the south, border states 
like Missouri, Kentucky, and West Virginia, and Rocky Mountain states, 
winning every state he won in 2000 (except New Hampshire) and leading 
in two Gore states, New Mexico and Iowa.  That said, he was stalled at 
268 electoral votes, 2 short of the magic 270.
 
     Both campaigns suspected it might come down to this.  Whoever won 
two of the three (Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania) would be elected 
president.   Hard-fought to the end, Florida gave Bush a 370,000 vote 
margin, a far cry from the contested 537 votes that won him the White 
House four years ago.  
  
     With PA for Kerry and FL for Bush, it all came down to Ohio's 20 
electoral votes.  With 100% of the precincts reporting, Bush had 
2,796,147 votes and Kerry had 2,659,664 votes, a margin of 136,000 
votes.  What raised questions Wednesday morning were reports that tens 
of thousands of provisional ballots had been cast by people who thought 
they were duly registered to vote and wanted their votes counted.  In 
the end, the Kerry campaign determined that even if there were 150,000 
such votes (and that's the number we hear), Kerry would not get them 
all.
 
     To his great credit, the senator opted (much like Richard Nixon 
did in 1960) not to bring in the lawyers to prolong a fight.  He called 
Bush privately and then publicly conceded the election.
 
 
Why Did Ohio Vote Bush?
 
     Over the next few weeks, pundits will ponder Ohio and give us 
their analysis of why a state hit much harder than PA with unemployment 
elected to stay the course with President Bush.  It may just be as 
simple as the Republicans did a better job of getting their voters to 
the polls.  After all, the Democratic Party is dysfunctional  in Ohio 
(in sharp contrast to PA), and the GOTV (get out the vote) efforts for 
Kerry were essentially designed by outside organizations (MoveOn and 
ACT), along with the Kerry campaign.  Ohio Republicans, while often 
fighting each other, were united for Bush/Cheney.  Exit polls suggested 
that 40% of those voting were Republicans, 35% were Democrats, and the 
rest Independents, and Bush won 94% of his party faithful. 
  
     Exit polls also found that the Christian conservatives were 
perhaps a more important factor in Ohio than in some other states.   
While 24% of Ohio voters said "jobs and the economy" was the MOST 
IMPORTANT issue to them, a stunning 23% said "moral values" was the 
MOST IMPORTANT issue in this campaign.  Hmmmm, moral values MORE 
important than terrorism, the Iraq war, health care . . . well, you get 
the idea.
 
     Karl Rove, who I have always admired for his political savvy, was 
dead right when he determined that, for Bush to win reelection, Bush 
needed 4 million Christian conservatives who failed to vote in 2000 to 
come out in 2004.  The president's actions (from gay marriage 
constitutional amendments to appeals to faith and the sanctity of life) 
were politically crafted to bring these voters to the polls in droves 
(hey, rhymes with Rove).  It was hardly a coincidence that many states, 
including Ohio, had gay marriage bans on their ballot to coincide with 
a Bush vote. The political elite ridicules this vote as the "God, guns, 
and gays" philosophy to elections, but it was brilliant .  . . and it 
worked!
 
     I'm sure we'll hear all sorts of other reasons why Ohio went red, 
and most of them will probably be right.  Once again, this state lived 
up to its billing as the maker and breaker of presidents.   Just ask 
John Kerry.
 
 
PENNSYLVANIA:
 
Keystone GOP Fails to Deliver:
 
     You have to wonder what President Bush thinks about Pennsylvanians 
today.  After 44 visits to this state and millions spent on TV and 
grassroots, he just couldn't get this state's voters to reverse their 
original opinion of him.  Four years ago, he lost PA by 204,000 votes.  
This year, he lost PA by 122,000 votes, despite the best GOP 
presidential campaign I have seen in this state in a long time.
 
     While the loss did not cost him the White House for another four 
years -- thanks to Florida and Ohio -- it has to hurt just a little 
bit.  No other state saw the president has much as we did over the last 
four years, and you just have to wonder.
 
     The most interesting aspect to the results in PA is that Kerry's 
victory is singularly a product of an incredible vote in Philadelphia 
and its suburbs, coupled with a strong performance in Allegheny 
County.  Philadelphia delivered a mind-boggling 392,000-vote margin to 
Kerry over Bush, the product of a totally united Street-Brady-Fuomo 
machine that beat every expectation except their own (they were hoping 
to hit 400,000).  And then the three Republican suburban counties did 
what they did four years ago -- they rejected Bush again.  While the 
numbers were smaller, they were fatal nonetheless.  Kerry won Bucks 
County by 9,000 votes, Delaware County by 40,000 votes, and Montgomery 
County by 45,000 votes.
 
     I think that Bush scares a lot of these voters, especially women, 
who are part of the Washington-to-New York crowd that eschews religious 
fanaticism and political hard edges, and has generally bought into the 
"Bush as Cowboy" image of the president.
 
     The other great victory area for Kerry in PA was Allegheny County 
which includes Pittsburgh and its suburbs.  This county is generally 
more conservative than the ones back east, but a very organized 
Democratic campaign managed to deliver the county by 95,000 votes, just 
shy of the 100,000 vote goal Dems had set for themselves.  While 
generally conservative, this county has not embraced the hard-core 
Republicanism of the religious right.  Indeed, imagine this, the 
traditionaly Republican suburban community of Mt. Lebanon actually gave 
Kerry a nearly 1,000 vote win over Bush.
 
 
Bright Sign for the PA GOP:
 
     What makes Kerry's success in Allegheny County so remarkable is 
that Bush did surprisingly well all around the SW region, carrying or 
nearly carrying many of the counties once thought to be Democratic 
strongholds. 
  
     No surprise that Bush carried Butler by nearly 25,000 votes and 
Westmoreland by 22,000 votes.  The former always votes Republican, and 
the latter (despite its Democratic registration edge) is now reliably 
Republican in most statewide races.  The big surprise is the result in 
some of the other counties thought to be Democratic, like Armstrong 
that voted Bush by 7,000 votes and Lawrence that gave Bush a 400-vote 
edge.  And what happened in Washington County where Bush came within 
400 votes of beating Kerry, or in Beaver where the Kerry margin was 
just 2,200 votes?
 
     My own instant analysis is that the religious conservative appeal, 
coupled with the GOP's solid grassroots effort, made a big difference 
in these culturally conservative Democratic counties.  It's a lesson 
that Democrats will have to heed in elections to come.
  
 
     This is my quickie, instant analysis of the presidential election 
with only a few hours of sleep.  There's much more to come in Part II 
with a particularly focus on the other statewide and local elections, 
some upsets and near upsets, and, of course, my traditional look at the 
political year ahead.  Stay tuned.
 
         Yours,
           Jon
 
 
Jon Delano
Political Analyst
H. John Heinz School of Public Policy & Management
Carnegie Mellon University
Pittsburgh
      
  
[As always, these views are my own and not those of the great 
organizations with whom I am privileged to be associated].
 
 
      
  
 
    
  
    

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