IP: ReThinking the Unthinkable 2002

[David Farber <dfarber () earthlink net>]

-----Original Message-----
From: Robert Lee <robertslee () comcast net>
Date: Tue, 28 May 2002 15:32:56 
To: eagroup () earthlink net, "David J. Farber" <dave () farber net>
Subject: RE: on  ReThinking the Unthinkable 2002

Don't you wonder why in the first 48 hours of conflict in Afghanistan
when the air force had a dozen Taliban chiefs located in a house our
warrior chiefs decided to ask for permission to kill them and in so
doing started a 24 hour whisper down the lane sequence of permission
askings, leading right up to the Secretary of Defense who when he gave
his permission gave it an hour or two too late and all but a child and a
woman escaped? Don't you wonder how we can be negotiating with Omar
Mulla Whatever his name is one minute and then not find him the next?
Negotiating?  Is someone home?   And don't you wonder why a six foot
four madman riding in a herd of 300 horses can disappear when our
satellites can read your license plate?

Don't you wonder how we can fight a war with Saddam Hussein, win, and
forget to kill him?

I am not sure why we do not want to hurt them but that we do not want to
hurt them I am sure.

The answer to all these enigmas is that we do not want to hurt these
people.  If we did they would be dead.  It is not terribly difficult.
In a war you kill the enemy.  Next subject.

Perhaps all leaders have made a deal with each other, tacit or explicit,
that they will fight using the succulent flesh of 18 year-old proxies.
Perhaps this deal was made 1.6 million years ago.

Bob 



Robert Lee
610-642-9705


-----Original Message-----
From: owner-ip-sub-1 () admin listbox com
[mailto:owner-ip-sub-1 () admin listbox com] On Behalf Of Dave Farber
Sent: Sunday, May 26, 2002 8:40 PM
To: ip
Subject: IP: on ReThinking the Unthinkable 2002


------ Forwarded Message
From: "Paul C. Lembesis" <eagroup () earthlink net>
Reply-To: "Paul C. Lembesis" <eagroup () earthlink net>
Date: Sun, 26 May 2002 20:29:37 -0400
To: <farber () cis upenn edu>
Subject: Re: ReThinking the Unthinkable 2002

Dave,

I spent 11 years as a strategic arms control negotiator and was the
legal
counsel to the START I and II delegations, so I know something about
these
issues.

First, while it is important to consider these issues, it should be kept
in
context.  It is very difficult to transport and handle radioactive
materials.  We would have a good chance of detecting this.  The meaning
of a
"dirty" bomb is inexact, but I think the most likely scenario is that
the
radioactive material would be packed around a conventional explosive.
There
would be no nuclear explosion.  Rather there would be a conventional
explosion that spread radioactive material.

The resulting damage would be horrible, with one or more square miles
contaminated and many people poisoned.  However, this is much less
damage
than would be caused by a nuclear explosion.

It would require much more technical sophistication for terrorists
create a
nuclear weapon.  Most likely, there would have to be a government
involved
for this to occur.  This type of attack can (and must) be stopped by
acting
in advance against hostile government programs to develop nuclear
weapons.
In other words, terrorists in a cave would be very unlikely to have this
capability.  If states are developing nuclear weapons to give to
terrorists,
our defense is to stop the development programs.  (As for delivery of
the
weapon, I have always been worried about ordinary boats that enter our
harbors.  Sophisticated missile systems to attack us would not be
needed.)

In answer to your question, the response to a "dirty" bomb would be
similar
to the response to September 11.  Domestically, there would have to be
large
scale relief to the affected area.  Internationally, there would be
military
retaliation against anyone identified as having caused the attack.

Hope this helps, Paul Lembesis


----- Original Message -----
From: "David Farber" <dave () farber net>
To: <ip-sub-1 () majordomo pobox com>
Sent: Sunday, May 26, 2002 7:51 PM
Subject: IP: ReThinking the Unthinkable 2002


> I have the utmost respect for the late Herman Kahn and his series on
> Thermonuclear War. He was fond of saying that not to think of the
> possibility was unethical.
>
> We have read a lot about dirty low tech nuclear devices, stolen
Russian
> devices, attacking nuclear plants etc. It is fair to ask the question
of
> what our response would be and should be if one of these events
happened.
I
> sincerely hope that it never happens and more sincerely hope that some
> young "Herman" is helping to prepare the analysis so that our
"leaders"
can
> act in the best informed and intelligent way if it happens.
>
> In the spirit of Kahn, I ask you to say what you believe should be
done if
> such a terrorist attack takes place and one of our cultural/population
> centers is made unlivable and many people face sickness in the future
for
> them and their children.
>
> What do we do?
>
> Dave
>
> For archives see:
> http://www.interesting-people.org/archives/interesting-people/


------ End of Forwarded Message

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