IP: Telecom 99 a report

[David Farber <farber () cis upenn edu>]

> From: RobtPotter () aol com
> Date: Thu, 21 Oct 1999 10:09:56 EDT
> Subject: Telecom 99
> To: farber () cis upenn edu
>
> IMPRESSIONS OF TELECOM 99
>
> Telecom 99 was held in Geneva, Switzerland from October 10 to October 17,
> 1999.  It is a worldwide telecommunications conference held every 4 years,
> sponsored by the International Telecommunications Union (ITU).
>
> The seminars (or Summits as they are called) at Telecom 99 were well
> attended by delegates of the various nations in the ITU, as well as by fee
> paying participants.
>
> There were multiple keynote speeches before the various summits.  ITU invited
> virtually every CEO of every major communications and computer company.  If
> the CEOs were not keynoters, they were on the various panels.  Very short
> abstracts of some of the keynotes follow:
>
> 1. John Roth offered a comprehensive view with slides of the Nortel Networks
> telecommunications capability, commenting on data and voice capabilities
> with significant emphasis on Internet related issues.  He said communications
> enabled civilization.
>
> 2. Louis Gerstner emphasized that IBM was not a telecommunications company,
> but wanted to partner with telecommunications companies.  He used no slides
> and gave a strong speech on the IBM entry in E-business and its requirements.
>
> 3. Mike Armstrong said competition turns the technology flywheel and
> technology turns the competition flywheel.  He advocated open markets
> and global standards.
>
> 4. Bill Gates emphasized the use of mobile terminals with Internet access and
> strong software capabilities.  He used simple direct slides to advocate the
> scale up and scale out of servers.  He proposed the merger of TV, PC and
> mobile phones.
>
> 5. Larry Ellison gave a provocative presentation of the use of a simple
> network appliance and commented critically on the complexity of Microsoft
> software.  He asserted that operating systems and applications should be in
> the server.  With the help of an assistant, he gave dramatic demonstrations
> and presentations.  He emphasized the Oracle presence in the Internet and
> major companies' Intranets.
>  6. Scott McNealy used a multi-component presentation to emphasize the use of
> JAVA and other applications stressing that the operating system and
> applications, such as StarOffice Suite, should be free.  He was strongly
> against the Microsoft approach.
>
> 7. Carly Fiorina gave an overview of the Hewlett-Packard computer and
> communications capability with words, no slides or demonstrations, a rather
> broad brush treatment.
>
> Over 1000 exhibitors used 700,000 square feet of space in the Palexpo.  Over
> 200,000 people attended.  The exhibits were spectacular, in many cases, three
> stories tall, and with various demonstrations and presentations on the ground
> level with private conference rooms and lunch rooms on the second or third
> levels. It was reported by the trade press that $2.5 billion was spent on
> Telecom 99.
>
> High speed Internet access, sophisticated communication systems and mobile
> devices, primarily cell phones dominated the demonstrations.
>
> You might be interested in a summary of my perceptions of Telecom 99.
>
> 1. The cell phones are getting smaller and packed with more features.
> 2. New portable devices included video and Internet access.
> 3. A major objective seems to be free access to the Internet, on line all the
> time and at high speed.
> 4. There is a lot of attention to the "third generation" of mobile telephony,
> 3G, as it is called.  It is described as a high speed data technology that
> will reach 2MB per second by 2003.
> 5. Various speakers made predictions on the growth of cell phones and
> Internet users.  My consensus was 1 billion land lines, 1 billion cell phones
> and 1 billion Internet users by 2003.
> 6. The speakers mentioned E-commerce very often.
> 7. Significant competition is emerging between Microsoft operating systems,
> applications and instructions on the terminal, i.e., the PC or the cell
> phone, versus Sun and Oracle advocating the terminal, mobile or fixed, to be
> a simple appliance with the processing in a server somewhere else.
> 8. Another major competition emerging is Internet access between telephone
> lines, DSL in its various configurations, and cable modems.
> 9. The major convergence discussed is between the Internet and the
> mobile device.
> 10. An often used word was WAP (wireless application protocol) which is the
> standard for the wireless Internet.  The WAP forum board has 208 industry
> members worldwide.
> 11. There was little mention of the consolidation of long distance and local
> telcos in the US and elsewhere.  Also, there was some mention of the
> reduction of cost of long distance within the USA.
> 12. Many of the exhibits featured similar general thrusts; thin panels,
> tricky applications, mobile terminals, sophisticated electronics and optical
> switching and connections, high speed access, mixed graphics, video and
> alpha-numerics.
> 13. There was a reasonable presence of the satellite telecommunications
> companies, some of which were inside a pavilion and others were in a tent so
> they could access their satellites outdoors.
> 14. In the seminars, the "have not" countries continually look for ways to
> gain more telephone density for their people.  This point received sensible
> recognition by the representatives of the developed nations, but not very
> many solutions were offered.
> 15. There were receptions for thousands of people sponsored by some of the
> big telecommunications companies.
> 16. There was an ever present feeling of "selling" going on, high attention
> to the customers by the suppliers.  The senior management of the exhibiting
> companies were often in executive sessions promoting their companies'
> businesses.
> 17. Virtually every major exhibitor had big flashing displays, and some even
> had streaming water.  The presentations often used cell phones, thin screens,
> touch screens and Internet access.  It was sometimes difficult to distinguish
> what they were sellingÖ..hardware, software, switching equipment versus what
> they were using.
> 18. IBM, Oracle, Dell and Worldcom did not have exhibits.  The only RBOC
> present was Bell Atlantic and GTE in a combined booth.
> 19. There was a blizzard of announcements, such that it was hard to
> distinguish new news from existing offerings.
> 20. The dress code was overwhelmingly suits and ties. There were virtually no
> jeans or golf shirts.
> 21. Each day a 70 page tabloid style trade magazine was published on the
> events of the day.
> 22. The fountain, in Lake Geneva, sprayed water 500 feet in the air, falling
> at
> an angle, making a sail-like waterfall.  At night, the fountain and its
> waterfall were a screen for various laser shows.
>
> Bob
>
> Robert J. Potter
> R. J. Potter Company
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