Re: House Armed Services Committee discussion on EMP

[Gadi Evron <ge () linuxbox org>]

On Thu, 21 Aug 2008, Gadi Evron wrote:

> [carbon copied from another list]
>
> From: Joe St Sauver
>
> Speaking of cyber war, I don't recall hearing much if any discussion
> of the 2008 report of the Commission to Assess the Threat to the
> United States From Electromagnetic Pulese (EMP) Attack. That report
> is dated April 2008, but the US House Armed Services Committee held
> hearings on that report July 10th, 2008.

I listened to it once, and then a second time to get the quotes I wanted. 
Especially interesting to those of us who study affecting change and 
existential risks.

Event mentioned:
August 13 2003--Power transmission line got hot, sagged down, touched a 
tree and shorted the ground. Next hour 2000 megawatts of generating 
capacity were looking for a route to get to the northern US. Whole 
North-East was blacked out.

Nice buzzword/teminology:
Graceful degradation

Facts and "realistic" assessments mixed in, shared:
1, Estimation of approximately 90% death toll is possible "within 
parameters"
2. Estimation of a year and a half to order replacement equipment to key 
systems, from abroad
3. Tested, estimation of 10% of cars to stop working, most (not all) to 
restart regularly
4. Launch over Caspian sea and tests of Shahab 3 to detonate in orbit show 
EMP intentions, no others come to mind
5. Explicit Iranian doctrine including EMP
6. It doesn't take advanced or large-yiled nuclear weapons
7. China and Russia have been developing such EMP devices, as opposed to 
their Cold War strategies
8. With a Scud B you could cover one of the coasts
9. Estimated we'd have three days supply of food

Mentioning of (not explored further):
intelligence interdiction and deterrence
deter, dissuade, and if necessary intercept

My favorite quotes:
"This report presents the results of the commission's assessment of an EMP 
attack to our critical national infrastructures sometimes referred to as 
civilian infrastructures, but since they are as important to our military 
capabilities and our national security as they are to our civilian economy 
and citizenship we chose to call it critical national infrastructures." -- 
Dr. William R. Graham, Chair, Commission to Assess the Threat to the 
United States from Electromagnetic Pulse (EMP) Attack before the House 
Armed Services Committee hearing on EMP, July 10, 2008.

"EMP is one of a small number of threats that can hold our society at risk 
of catastrophic consequences. A well coordinated and wide-spread cyber 
attack is another potential example." -- Dr. William R. Graham, Chair, 
Commission to Assess the Threat to the United States from Electromagnetic 
Pulse (EMP) Attack before the House Armed Services Committee hearing on 
EMP, July 10, 2008.

"Our vulnerability is increasing daily as our use and dependence on 
electronics and automated systems continues to grow." -- Dr. William R. 
Graham, Chair, Commission to Assess the Threat to the United States from 
Electromagnetic Pulse (EMP) Attack before the House Armed Services 
Committee hearing on EMP, July 10, 2008.

"The impact of EMP is asymmetric in relation to potential adversaries who 
are not as dependent on modern electronics as we are." -- Dr. William R. 
Graham, Chair, Commission to Assess the Threat to the United States from 
Electromagnetic Pulse (EMP) Attack before the House Armed Services 
Committee hearing on EMP, July 10, 2008.

"The current vulnerability of our critical infrastructures can both invite 
and reward attack if not corrected." -- Dr. William R. Graham, Chair, 
Commission to Assess the Threat to the United States from Electromagnetic 
Pulse (EMP) Attack before the House Armed Services Committee hearing on 
EMP, July 10, 2008.

"It's unlikely my home will burn but I would not sleep well if I did not 
have an insurance policy. I don't hire somebody to stand there watching 
for a fire to yell fire! fire! but i do have an insurance policy. That's 
what I'd like my nation to have for EMP protection." -- Rep. Roscoe 
Bartlett, House Armed Services Committee hearing on EMP, July 10, 2008.

[answering on if EMP is the most asymmetric attack possible] "One as I 
mentioned was a cyber attack, possibly a very wide-spread and contagious 
biological attacks, but this is one of a very small set and very 
asymmetric." -- Dr. William R. Graham, Chair, Commission to Assess the 
Threat to the United States from Electromagnetic Pulse (EMP) Attack before 
the House Armed Services Committee hearing on EMP, July 10, 2008.

Answering: "Why is there so little interest in the part of our leadership 
to do something about it? Is it just too hard they just don't want to face 
it?" -- Asked by Rep. Roscoe Bartlett, Dr. William R. Graham answered:

"It might be better to ask a sociologist than an engineer and physicist 
that question, but it falls into the category of a problem which hasn't 
happened yet. Certainly our ability to predict very unusual and 
significant events whether it's Pearl Harbor, the start of the Korean war, 
9/11 and whatever, we have, to paraphrase Winston Churchill "much to be 
humble about" in our ability to predict these events before they happen. 
Of course once they happen then there tends to be massive response, but 
somehow it's just not within our character and our society to look for 
these events before they occur." -- Dr. William R. Graham, Chair, 
Commission to Assess the Threat to the United States from Electromagnetic 
Pulse (EMP) Attack  before the House Armed Services Committee hearing on 
EMP, July 10, 2008.

"This may be the all-time asymmetric threat but it is also the all-time 
esoteric threat" - Rep. John Spratt, House Armed Services Committee 
hearing on EMP, July 10, 2008.

"Affordability is like beauty, it tends to be in the eye of the beholder" 
-- Dr. William R. Graham, Chair, Commission to Assess the Threat to the 
United States from Electromagnetic Pulse (EMP) Attack before the House 
Armed Services Committee hearing on EMP, July 10, 2008.

"If you are preparing for something like this in advance, say years ahead, 
you're now a patriot, you're stimulating the economy, but if you do it 
hours before it happens, now you're a hoarder [and] you're doing exactly 
the same thing and timing is critical." -- Rep. Roscoe Bartlett, House 
Armed Services Committee hearing on EMP, July 10, 2008.




_______________________________________________
Fun and Misc security discussion for OT posts.
https://linuxbox.org/cgi-bin/mailman/listinfo/funsec
Note: funsec is a public and open mailing list.