RE: Learn from history?

[Steffen Kluge <kluge () fujitsu com au>]

On Tue, 2004-05-11 at 00:50, Michal Zalewski wrote:
> > R = E x p
> >
> > R = Risk
> > E = event
> > p = probability of the event happening
>
> If we must toy with bogus marketspeak "equations", shouldn't E - at the
> very least - numerically correspond to the consequences (loss?) caused by
> an event, rather than being an event itself?

Of course. Prevalent risk management standards put "impact" in the place
of "event" (which isn't quantifiable anyway). And they don't use an
arithmetic product to combine impact and likelihood, but rather a
matrix, which is not linear but more close to reality.

> Otherwise, my risk R of getting a bar of chocolate from a stranger is
> 0.001 * getting_chocolate_bar_from_stranger.

Having avoided carbs for quite a while I can't really comment...

Cheers
Steffen.

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