Re: Integrated IDS/IPS/Firewall (Cisco ASA and Juniper ISG)

[Chris Blask <chris () blask org>]

At 09:42 AM 26/05/2006, MJR wrote:
> ArkanoiD wrote:
>
> It's not a matter of funding - it's more a matter that there's no economic
> niche in which someone could offer such a thing and survive to continue
> doing so. 
.d.
> base of maybe 2% of the overall market. Which, in the words of
> Peter Kuper "that's not a market, that's a hobby."

And Peter is entirely correct.  I guess the real thread here is whether this trend we're discussing is good or bad, and 
the answer is: "both".

> Kuper gave a talk I attended a year ago, or so, which was really
> sobering and very thought-provoking. In it, he pointed out that if you
> took the total US spend on computer security, and subtracted
> out of it the security revenues of the top 5 players, you've only
> got something like 4% of the target revenues remaining. So there
> are 800+ security-related companies fighting over that 5% and
> even if you assume the revenues get distributed evenly that's
> something like $20 million / year apiece. When you add to the
> mix the fact that most of the 800+ security companies on the
> market are VC funded in some way, and are not profitable, it
> means there's going to be a great big die-off coming in the
> not-too-distant future. Throw the open source "X factor" into the
> mix and it gets even more explosive - if you're a small start-up
> producing a decent widget and some open source project
> comes along producing a 95% decent widget you're likely to see
> your economic niche shrink to a thread overnight.

That talk by Peter and a couple chats with him since enforced my view of the next blask-venture.com - if you aren't 
doing something very very interesting or opening a new space, you're wasting time.  There are n-to-the-nth startups out 
there with ideas that sound to me like:  "...yeah, but *this* mousetrap uses special cheese!...", or couldn't recognize 
market needs to save their antique computer collection.

7xx+ of those 800 startups deserve to die for one reason or another.  You can't just create a firewall/sensor/auth 
solution and expect the world to fall at your feet anymore.

> > We are lucky XML firewalls became reality, thanks to people who made those.
>
> I'm on the fence about that one. Having XML firewalls is kind of
> luck having a nice band-aid to put over your sucking chest wound.
> Well, it's great, but you'd rather not have had the sucking chest
> wound in the first place.

<grin>  "Don't go changin'!"

I agree, btw...

> > And when i try to tell someone i am firewall developer, they usually think
> > it is another stupid linux-based packet filter hacked together with bunch 
> > of freeware tools hiding its incredible uglyness behind the web interface. 
> > Even before i tell a word. Just because everyone does that and main competition
> > is to make it cheaper.
>
> ...and faster. Don't forget faster!
> If you can't be good   ...be really fast.

Yep.  That's the sign of a spent market opportunity.  If that's all left to raise you above the pack, you better be 
able to live on slim margins and low salaries.

-cheers!

-chris


The hottest places in hell are reserved for those who, in times of crisis, have no opinion.

- Dante Alighieri (1265-1321) 

Chris Blask
chris () blask org
http://blaskworks.blogspot.com 

+1 416 358 9885  


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