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FC: Computer simulation predicts George W. Bush wins election
From: Declan McCullagh <declan () well com>
Date: Mon, 06 Nov 2000 09:32:50 -0500
http://www.cluebot.com/article.pl?sid=00/11/06/0520254&mode=nested Computer Simulation Predicts Bush Wins Election posted by cicero on Monday November 06, @07:15AM from the computers-never-lie dept. Congratulations, Dubya! If our electoral simulation is correct, you're the new prez. This is based on what statisticians call a Monte Carlo simulation, a standard technique in which virtual elections are repeated over and over based on the latest poll intelligence to get an average score. The result? According to our in-house mathematician and polling analyst (read the writeup below): "At the end of each list of trials the maximum, minimum, and average over the 100 trials are reported for each candidate. Though 270 Electoral Votes are needed to claim the Presidency, in none of the 200 simulations here did Gore win over 257. The average result is Bush 340 and Gore 200." Alas, our author can't take the credit he deserves. Because of unrelated, non-political consulting work he does for the government, he wishes to remain anonymous. Monte Carlo Simulations of the Electoral College Based on Rasmussen Research's State Surveys. In each state, independent random choices are made for each of the three candidates from probability distributions with means chosen as indicated below and with an appropriate standard deviation about half of the margin of error. This probability distribution is the same one from which the margin of error is computed. The standard deviation for Nader was appropriately scaled to account for his smaller percentage. Finally, the candidate's results are compared and that state's Electoral Votes awarded to the one with larger percentage. There are two sets of simulations below in which the means are chosen in two different ways. In the first case the mean of the distribution for each candidate and state is the latest survey result, as of Sunday, November 5. In the second case, the mean is the survey result predicted for November 7 obtained by adding a correction to the last survey result. The correction is the change in the candidate's national trend line between the date of the last survey for that state and a (slightly) extrapolated November 7 value. The trend lines were constructed by eye, and arrive at election day with Bush having 47.5% and Gore 42.5%. The effect is to increase the mean of Bush's distribution relative to Gore's for states last surveyed before the third debate. The results of 100 simulations of each kind are presented here. Two totals are presented for each candidate in each simulation. The first is the national total, and the second is the total for the ten tossup states where the difference between the candidates is currently 3 points or less. At the end of each list of trials the maximum, minimum, and average over the 100 trials are reported for each candidate. Though 270 Electoral Votes are needed to claim the Presidency, in none of the 200 simulations here did Gore win over 257. The average result is Bush 340 and Gore 200. The largest variation is caused by the California result. Since California has 54 electoral votes, and the rest total 94, if one candidate's tossup total is greater than 94, that candidate has won California. This is true for Bush five times in the first set of 100, and seven times in the second set. Note that the maximum of the tossup totals for Gore is 132. This means that Bush won some trials in which Gore got nearly all of the 148 tossup votes. Half of those times, Bush's total was 400 Electoral Votes or more. Tossup States California 54 Delaware 3 Minnesota 10 Washington 11 Michigan 18 Tennessee 11 Arkansas 6 Florida 25 New Mexico 5 West Virginia 5 Simulations Based on Most Recent Survey Trial# GoreEV BushEV GTossEV BTossEV 1 183 355 69 79 2 207 331 93 55 3 156 382 64 84 4 225 313 111 37 5 202 336 81 67 6 211 327 97 51 7 212 326 94 54 8 217 321 103 45 9 223 315 109 39 10 199 339 85 63 11 194 344 80 68 12 221 317 107 41 13 214 324 93 55 14 218 320 104 44 15 203 335 89 59 16 203 335 89 59 17 224 314 106 42 18 203 335 89 59 19 186 352 72 76 20 223 315 102 46 21 184 354 70 78 22 173 365 59 89 23 197 341 83 65 24 214 324 85 63 25 199 339 85 63 26 215 323 101 47 27 182 356 68 80 28 200 338 86 62 29 200 338 86 62 30 193 345 79 69 31 189 349 75 73 32 197 341 83 65 33 152 386 38 110 34 186 352 72 76 35 182 356 68 80 36 214 324 89 59 37 221 317 107 41 38 188 350 96 52 39 188 350 74 74 40 221 317 107 41 41 224 314 99 49 42 186 352 72 76 43 217 321 107 41 44 214 324 122 26 45 192 346 78 70 46 130 408 16 132 47 246 292 132 16 48 208 330 94 54 49 192 346 78 70 50 192 346 78 70 51 213 325 114 34 52 171 367 57 91 53 208 330 83 65 54 218 320 104 44 55 173 365 59 89 56 171 367 57 91 57 217 321 103 45 58 214 324 110 38 59 222 316 108 40 60 231 307 117 31 61 183 355 69 79 62 200 338 86 62 63 168 370 54 94 64 246 292 121 27 65 203 335 107 41 66 205 333 91 57 67 186 352 72 76 68 227 311 102 46 69 203 335 89 59 70 186 352 79 69 71 207 331 93 55 72 199 339 85 63 73 196 342 71 77 74 138 400 24 124 75 149 389 35 113 76 125 413 11 137 77 199 339 85 63 78 228 310 114 34 79 198 340 80 68 80 207 331 93 55 81 176 362 62 86 82 208 330 94 54 83 193 345 68 80 84 200 338 79 69 85 217 321 103 45 86 184 354 70 78 87 200 338 86 62 88 216 322 102 46 89 200 338 86 62 90 179 359 65 83 91 223 315 86 62 92 199 339 85 63 93 221 317 107 41 94 204 334 90 58 95 215 323 101 47 96 168 370 54 94 97 176 362 62 86 98 197 341 83 65 99 195 343 81 67 100 210 328 96 52 max 246 413 132 137 min 125 292 11 16 avg 198.92 339.08 84.57 63.43 Simulations Based On Date-Adjusted Data Trial# GoreEV BushEV GTossEV BTossEV 1 200 338 86 62 2 207 331 93 55 3 221 317 107 41 4 171 367 79 69 5 216 322 98 50 6 211 327 97 51 7 211 327 97 51 8 223 315 102 46 9 179 359 65 83 10 203 335 85 63 11 197 341 83 65 12 246 292 132 16 13 199 339 85 63 14 203 335 89 59 15 230 308 116 32 16 235 303 121 27 17 196 342 78 70 18 147 391 29 119 19 192 346 78 70 20 218 320 104 44 21 153 385 39 109 22 203 335 89 59 23 209 329 91 57 24 197 341 83 65 25 221 317 107 41 26 189 349 75 73 27 207 331 93 55 28 188 350 74 74 29 192 346 78 70 30 179 359 65 83 31 190 348 65 83 32 211 327 97 51 33 158 380 44 104 34 200 338 86 62 35 208 330 94 54 36 197 341 83 65 37 224 314 110 38 38 212 326 83 65 39 198 340 73 75 40 216 322 91 57 41 192 346 78 70 42 195 343 81 67 43 202 336 88 60 44 132 406 14 134 45 218 320 104 44 46 177 361 63 85 47 247 291 129 19 48 204 334 90 58 49 246 292 132 16 50 195 343 81 67 51 257 281 132 16 52 178 360 64 84 53 243 295 129 19 54 150 388 29 119 55 223 315 109 39 56 205 333 91 57 57 127 411 13 135 58 201 337 78 70 59 239 299 107 41 60 186 352 72 76 61 246 292 132 16 62 217 321 103 45 63 214 324 96 52 64 210 328 96 52 65 200 338 86 62 66 211 327 97 51 67 138 400 24 124 68 200 338 86 62 69 244 294 107 41 70 182 356 68 80 71 225 313 111 37 72 203 335 89 59 73 178 360 64 84 74 212 326 91 57 75 190 348 67 81 76 218 320 104 44 77 189 349 75 73 78 193 345 79 69 79 203 335 89 59 80 218 320 93 55 81 221 317 96 52 82 205 333 91 57 83 192 346 78 70 84 218 320 104 44 85 229 309 115 33 86 225 313 111 37 87 211 327 97 51 88 213 325 88 60 89 210 328 96 52 90 217 321 92 56 91 234 304 109 39 92 209 329 95 53 93 228 310 114 34 94 215 323 101 47 95 189 349 75 73 96 223 315 109 39 97 237 301 123 25 98 235 303 121 27 99 186 352 72 76 100 197 341 83 65 max 257 411 132 135 min 127 281 13 16 avg 204.59 333.41 88.55 59.45 ------------------------------------------------------------------------- POLITECH -- the moderated mailing list of politics and technology You may redistribute this message freely if it remains intact. 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