FC: Y2K predictions, from Cory Hamasaki's newsletter

[Declan McCullagh <declan () well com>]

********

[Cory Hamasaki is a mainframe programmer who lives and works near Washington
DC. I know Cory; I've had lunch with him. About a year ago Cory started to try
to sell a Y2K newsletter called the "DC Y2K Weather Report" with essays he and
various contributors wrote. Here are some of my favorite excerpts. Alas, he
has
not yet posted his post-1-1-00 report. I had hoped to find out when the
extinction of the entire human race was scheduled to begin. --DBM]

********

http://www.kiyoinc.com/WRP103.HTM
We must also prepare ourselves for the very real possibility that the outcome
of this situation might well be the total extinction of the entire human race.
It really could be worse than I am predicting and I really am being
optimistic.
First, I would like to assure you that I am not some kind of nut anxiously
waiting for the end of the world...

http://www.kiyoinc.com/WRP127.HTM
Plague will follow shortly. Most of the inhabitants of the northern cities
will
die within a matter of a few weeks, from cold, disease, fires started in an
attempt to keep warm, or random violence. This is bad enough, of course, to
qualify as a disaster ranking with the Black Plague, if not the extinction of
the dinosaurs.

http://www.kiyoinc.com/WRP107.HTM
[You should cache] most of your arms and supplies, while this is still
possible
and legal. Preferably, you should have several smaller caches known only to
you
and to a highly trusted backup... someone who will pass the supplies on to
your
family or group if anything happens to you... you need to convert most of your
spare cash and paper investments into gold and/or silver coins. 

http://www.kiyoinc.com/WRP127.HTM
I think it is going to be very bad. In fact, the best possible case for which
there is any hope is another Great Depression.

http://www.kiyoinc.com/WRP121.HTM
Your choices are: 1) Go it alone, 2) join a loose team, a church group,
neighborhood watch, community association, 3) hook up with a "tight" team
(possibilities range from helping great Aunt Edith fix up the family farm to
throwing in with trusted known survivalists.) In any of these situations, the
older single woman is not a 2nd class citizen...

http://www.kiyoinc.com/WRP107.HTM
A co-ordinated, world wide, information technology failure. Lots of systems
will survive but lots will fail too. The failures will be odd, spectacular,
unlike anything we can imagine now. 

http://www.kiyoinc.com/WRP103.HTM
The systems will break, this is a certainty. It is uncertain whether the
consequence is rioting, looting. "Mad Max" and "Escape from New York" or
"Little House on the Prairie". 

http://www.kiyoinc.com/WRP130.HTM
Using the parts in the kit you will be able to convert any flashlight into a
long life LED flashlight... I'm not selling these kits, I'm giving them
away to
WRP members along with the Gardening book, etc. I have about 30 kits left
so if
you want one, join the DC Weather Report Team today. 

http://www.kiyoinc.com/WRP108.HTM
This isn't about paranoid survivalism...Everything has a purpose. Nothing is
wasted. If Y2K isn't the disaster that even Ko-skin-em has started hinting at,
the Baron will have a fabulous farm with modern amenities. The buildings, the
fences, all add to his net worth and improve the productivity of DragonRanch. 

http://www.kiyoinc.com/WRP107.HTM
As 1999 progresses, as the global economy continues to decline and as more and
more of the early Y2K failures occur, there will be some sudden, critical
failure which will trigger a social crisis... Whatever the cause, governments
all over the world will seize on this as an excuse to put their plans for
martial law into effect, hoping to have some kind of emergency administration
in place before their existing systems are wiped out by Y2K.

http://www.kiyoinc.com/WRP101.HTM
[shopping tips:] save only the high dollar amount coupons for the products you
use most including personal hygiene items... toothbrushes, toothpaste,
deodorant, shampoos, soaps of all kinds, zip lock bags, cereal, razors, can
goods and new product lines. Everything goes on sale eventually. We are fully
stocked and will use some of the stuff for bartering. 

http://www.kiyoinc.com/WRP109.HTM
The second challenge is to hone your skillsets for whatever comes after Y2K...
For programmers, the most powerful technology I have found is Automata Theory.
This stuff is like nuclear power. 

http://www.kiyoinc.com/WRP106.HTM
I have been studying Y2K in every way possible to me since October of 1997. On
a daily basis. How many hours? I don't want to know. In that time I have
become
convinced that we are going to get blasted. Big time blasted. Infomagic
blasted. I have learned enough to get real damn scared, scared motionless like
a rabbit facing a snake. 

http://www.kiyoinc.com/WRP100.HTM
Eventually we will have repaired the infrastructure, but by then we will be
stuck in a depression. Keep in mind that it took WW II to get us out of the
Great Depression. This case may not seem too bad, until you start thinking
about the people that will starve to death, or die from lack of medical care.
Much of modern agriculture depends on artificial fertilizers and insecticides,
and is energy intensive, both directly and indirectly. Expect wars to be
fought
over water... But it could be worse still. In the wake of a social collapse,
weapons of mass destruction could fall into the hands of small bands of
terrorists...

http://www.kiyoinc.com/WRP102.HTM
Problem is if only ~1% of the people are preparing now and the supply chain is
overburdened,
adding only another 1% will crush it. Come May-June of 99 your chances of
buying any long term
foods will be minimal. So then people will start stocking canned goods and dog
food. Not
guaranteed, but there is a distinct possibility that we could start seeing
food
shortages at the local
grocery stores by July-Aug 99 as everyone starts buying ten extra cans of food
a week. . . " 

http://www.kiyoinc.com/WRP100.HTM
the stock market bubble will burst. I have predicted that this would happen in
the
October/November [1999 --DBM] time frame, and I stand by my words... There is
nothing we can do to avert this problem. We might have been able to fix the
computer problem if we had ignored the pollyannas and started on a massive,
co-ordinated effort five years ago... We might have fixed the economic problem
if we had ignored the bulls and taken the necessary economic steps five years
ago. But we did neither, and now they are both combining, feeding on each
other, to give us the biggest, deepest, disaster in human history (with the
possible exception of Noah's flood). 



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