Re: 5G roadblock: labor

[Michael Thomas <mike () mtcc com>]

On 1/5/20 3:21 AM, Mark Tinka wrote:
> I think we can all agree that the future is wireless access for
> everything (phones, tablets, laptops, domestic appliances, e.t.c.).
>
> The question isn't about whether the kids will be using wire or
> wireless... we know they will be using wireless. The question is what
> that wireless will be. Something has to drive the wireless, so the wire
> (mostly high-bandwidth fibre) is not going anywhere. It is the
> distribution, particularly in consumer applications, that will be wireless.
>
> I just think that it will be more wi-fi than GSM data, simply because of
> the cost of scaling out GSM data vs. the cost of running fibre to a site
> and distributing connectivity via wi-fi.
>
> Because you can pack wi-fi AP's a lot more densely for cheaper compared
> to GSM radios, I think allocating newer frequencies toward wi-fi in
> addition to the existing 2.4GHz and 5GHz makes a lot more sense to me,
> and partially resolves the never-ending issues MNO's have of a lack of
> spectrum.


It occurs to me that what we're really quibbling about here is where 
fiber ends. Is it at every street corner, or is it directly into my 
house? It seems to me ftth is the long term win economically because not 
everybody cares about each upgrade to wifi and are happy to wait until 
they do care -- if ever. Carriers, on the other hand, have to forklift 
in the new equipment at every G+1. That costs a lot of money which they 
have to recoup through higher fees. And they have to buy spectrum which 
is expensive. And they have to buy/rent real estate which is expensive. 
But people say ftth is expensive. But expensive to all of the stuff that 
wireless carriers need to deploy? Color me extremely dubious. It's not 
like rent seeking is exactly a secret with carriers, and that's what 
this smells like to me. The only advantage they have is that they can do 
handoffs which while useful, is not a deal breaker in a *lot* of 
situations. Other than that, I really don't want to use their air bits.

Mike