Re: Another Big day for IPv6 - 10% native penetration

[Jon Lewis <jlewis () lewis org>]

On Mon, 4 Jan 2016, Ca By wrote:

> > Given the recent doubling growth, and assuming this trend is following a
> > logistic function, then, rounding the numbers a bit for neatness, I get:
> >
> > Jan 2016: 10%
> > Jan 2017: 20%
> > Jan 2018: 33%
> > Jan 2019: 50%
> > Jan 2020: 67%
> > Jan 2021: 80%
> > Jan 2022: 90%
> >
> > with IPv4 traffic then halving year by year from then on, and IPv4
> > switch-off (ie. traffic < 1%) around 2027.
> >
> > Neil
> Just a reminder, that 10% is a global number.
>
> The number in the USA is 25% today in general, is 37% for mobile devices.
>
> Furthermore, forecasting is a dark art that frequently simply extends the
> past onto the future.  It does not account for purposeful engineering
> design like the "world IPv6 launch" or iOS updates.

Add to that the fact that as we run closer to (or further into?) run-out, 
at some point there's likely to be a rapid acceleration in v6 provisioning 
as networks finally realize that they can't reasonably get any more v4 
space or their end-user customers finally begin to demand v6.

If Brighthouse has people on-list...you're embarrassingly late to this 
party...and its time to start calling out end-user providers that still 
don't even offer v6.

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 Jon Lewis, MCP :)           |  I route
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