Re: "It's the end of the world as we know it" -- REM

[Andrew Latham <lathama () gmail com>]

On Wed, Apr 24, 2013 at 12:55 PM, Lee Howard <Lee () asgard org> wrote:
> On 4/24/13 10:18 AM, "Andrew Latham" <lathama () gmail com> wrote:
>
> > * Tore
> >
> > On Wed, Apr 24, 2013 at 1:46 AM, Tore Anderson <tore () fud no> wrote:
> > > * Andrew Latham
> > >
> > > > I have sadly witnessed a growing number of businesses with /24s
> > > > moving to colocation/aws networks and not giving up their unused
> > > > network space. I assume this will come into play soon.
> > >
> > > A couple of /24s being returned wouldn't make a significant difference
> > > when it comes to IPv4 depletion. Heck, not even a couple of /8s would.
> > > Trying to reclaim and redistribute unused space would be a tremendous
> > > waste of effort.
> >
> > If I can walk around a smallish town and point at 5 businesses like
> > this its a possible solution.  I am not claiming a few /24s will do, I
> > am claiming that there are many (for larger values of many) companies
> > like this.
>
> Look at NRO statistics prior to APNIC and RIPE final /8 (runout).  It's
> pretty linear growth. Is that the real demand for IPv4 addresses?  In the
> last couple of years it was 10-15 /8 equivalents.
>
> How many addresses do you think can be released (whether reclaimed or, as
> is more likely, brought into the market)?  A /8?  Five /8s?  Say it's a
> billion addresses made available to a market.  That only feeds demand for
> 18-30 months.
>
> A demand curve would show that as prices increase, there is demand for
> fewer IPv4 addresses.  However, nobody knows the slope of the curve (other
> than my speculation about cost of IPv6 and TCO of CGN as points where the
> demand shifts).  A supply curve would show that as prices increase, more
> addresses become available (transfers, renumbering, eventually
> substitution).  I'm working on ideas about that slope.
>
> Lee


Lee

Totally agree, your point is the larger issue at hand, just pointing
out and ugly issue that I witnessed recently.  Corporate networks and
ASNs totally off and not in use.  But don't worry, they will use them
if someone tries to take them away.



-- 
~ Andrew "lathama" Latham lathama () gmail com http://lathama.net ~