Re: Yahoo and IPv6

[William Herrin <bill () herrin us>]

On Sat, May 14, 2011 at 1:06 PM, Paul Vixie <vixie () isc org> wrote:
> > From: Marshall Eubanks <tme () americafree tv>
> > Date: Sat, 14 May 2011 13:02:16 -0400
> >
> > I think that the real question is, when will people who are running
> > IPv4 only not be on the Internet by this definition ?
>
> is there an online betting mechanism we could use, that we all think will
> still be in business decades from now when the truth is known?

http://longbets.org/

>  if we're
> going to start picking the month and year when IPv4 is the new "PDP-11
> compatibility mode" (that's a VAX reference), where the winner is whoever
> comes closest without going over, my pick is July 2021, and i'm in for $50.

Two suggestions:

1. Predict the condition, not the date. In other words, not "Condition
X will occur at Y" but "At Y, condition X will be true." The problem
with predicting the date is that the bet can't close until the
condition occurs. That leaves an unbounded case.

2. Measurability. How do you measure, "IPv4 is the new PDP-11
compatibility mode?" Try something like, "In the month of July 2021,
X% of the network traffic by packet count on the top 5 Internet
carriers will contain IPv4 packets. "

Regards,
Bill Herrin


-- 
William D. Herrin ................ herrin () dirtside com  bill () herrin us
3005 Crane Dr. ...................... Web: <http://bill.herrin.us/>
Falls Church, VA 22042-3004