Re: "2M today, 10M with no change in technology"? An informal survey.

[David Conrad <drc () virtualized org>]

Jon,

On Aug 27, 2007, at 5:50 PM, Jon Lewis wrote:
> > > Any reasonably valid way of predicting when we'll hit 244,000  
> > > routes in the default-free zone?
> > Real Soon Now?

According to Geoff, the BGP table is growing at around 3500 routes  
per month, so we're looking at blowing out MSFC2s in about 3 months  
if nothing changes.

And here I was, wondering about 2M routes...

> Unlike Y2K, the end of the useful service life up the Sup2 can  
> easily be pushed further away in time.

"Easy" is, I suspect, in the mind of the route injector.

> There's really only 151129 routes you need to have "full routes".   
> Forcing just these top 4 slobs to aggregate reduces your global  
> table by 3619 routes.

~1 more month.

> Forcing the top 30 to aggregate frees up 15809 routes.

~3 more months.

> Of course there are other reasons to upgrade (better CPU, MPLS,  
> IPv6, etc.), but if you can't upgrade, there are alternatives to  
> stretch the old hardware.

For a few more months.  What are upgrade cycles like again?  How  
common are the MSFC2s?

> It's not like it hasn't been done before.

Yep.  The nice thing about repeating history is you have a good idea  
of the whinage that you're in store for.

"CIDR Wars 2.0: This Time It's For Real!  No, really.  We mean it  
this time."

:-)

Regards,
-drc

"I used to be disgusted, now I try to be amused ..." -- Elvis Costello