RE: Worst case worm damage estimates: Research

[Sean Donelan <sean () donelan com>]

On Sat, 5 Jun 2004, Michel Py wrote:
> If your desktop support guys are half-organized, they have a replacement
> machine ready to install when the user calls for service, then the
> machine that as problem (which often is PICNIC: Problem In Chair Not In
> Computer) goes on the bench where the time it takes to reload a fresh
> Windows is 5 minutes, time to plug the cables in and pop the Ghost CD
> in.

This is where I agree with Paxson and Weaver, there isn't a deep supply
line for replacement PCs.  If 50 million PCs fall over in a single
morning, its unlikely the PC repair people will have enough replacement
machines ready instantly.  Its the supermarket effect before a big
snowstorm, they run out of milk and bread within a couple of hours.
But then what happens?  People starve? or is there product substitution?

But I disagree with the repair costs and even the productivity impact.
We have some experience with defective software, operator error and
destructive maleware.  My concern is over-estimates and under-estimates
can lead to poor decisions. Unfortunately, we don't have a good way to
get the proprietary data that does exist into a useful form for public
decision making.

The perfect storm scenario is interesting.  But it needs to be validated
against "business as usual" and cost of historical product recalls.