In about 20 years, half the population will live in eight states

["Dave Farber" <farber () gmail com>]

Begin forwarded message:

> From: Dewayne Hendricks <dewayne () warpspeed com>
> Date: July 15, 2018 at 6:21:13 AM GMT+9
> To: Multiple recipients of Dewayne-Net <dewayne-net () warpspeed com>
> Subject: [Dewayne-Net] In about 20 years, half the population will live in eight states
> Reply-To: dewayne-net () warpspeed com
>
> In about 20 years, half the population will live in eight states
> By Philip Bump
> Jul 12 2018
> <https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/politics/wp/2018/07/12/in-about-20-years-half-the-population-will-live-in-eight-states/>
>
> In response to Post opinion writer Paul Waldman’s essay about the current power of the minority in American politics, 
> the American Enterprise Institute’s Norman Ornstein offered a stunning bit of data on Twitter.
>
> In broad strokes, Ornstein is correct.
>
> The Weldon Cooper Center for Public Service of the University of Virginia analyzedCensus Bureau population 
> projections to estimate each state’s likely population in 2040, including the expected breakdown of the population by 
> age and gender. Although that data was released in 2016, before the bureau revised its estimates for the coming 
> decades, we see that, in fact, the population will be heavily centered in a few states.
>
> Eight states will have just under half of the total population of the country, 49.5 percent, according to the Weldon 
> Cooper Center’s estimate. The next eight most populous states will account for an additional fifth of the population, 
> up to 69.2 percent — meaning that the 16 most populous states will be home to about 70 percent of Americans.
>
> Geographically, most of those 16 states will be on or near the East Coast. Only three — Arizona, Texas and Colorado — 
> will be west of the Mississippi and not on the West Coast.
>
> Ornstein’s (and Waldman’s) point is clear: 30 percent of the population of the country will control 68 percent of the 
> seats in the U.S. Senate. Or, more starkly, half the population of the country will control 84 percent of those seats.
>
> His tweet goes further, suggesting that the demographics of those states will differ from the larger states, as well, 
> and, therefore, so will their politics.
>
> It’s self-evident that the 34 smaller states will be more rural than the 16 largest; a key part of the reason those 
> states will be so much more populous is the centralization of Americans in cities. It’s true, too, that this movement 
> to cities has reinforced partisan divisions in a process called the Big Sort.
>
> The Weldon Cooper data, though, is less stark on the age differential. Eleven of the 16 most-populous states will 
> have over-65 populations that are below the median density nationally. Twenty-two of the 34 less-populous states will 
> have over-65 populations that are over the median density.
>
> [snip]
>
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