Fwd: [EE CS Colloq] Combining Physical and Statistical Models in Order to Narrow * 4:30PM, Wed Jan 17, 2018 in Gates B03

["Dave Farber" <dave () farber net>]

---------- Forwarded message ---------
From: Dennis Allison <allison () stanford edu>
Date: Sun, Jan 14, 2018 at 9:53 AM
Subject: [EE CS Colloq] Combining Physical and Statistical Models in Order
to Narrow * 4:30PM, Wed Jan 17, 2018 in Gates B03
To: <dave () farber net>


Stanford EE Computer Systems Colloquium
4:30 PM, Wednesday, Jan 17, 2018
NEC Auditorium, Gates Computer Science Building Room B3
http://ee380.stanford.edu

Combining Physical and Statistical Models in Order to Narrow Uncertainty in
Projected of Global Warming

Patrick Brown
Carnegie Institution for Science at Stanford *About the talk: *

A key question in climate science is How much global warming should we
expect for a given increase in the atmospheric concentration of greenhouse
gasses like carbon dioxide? One strategy for addressing this question is to
run physical models of the global climate system but these models vary in
their estimates of future warming by about a factor of two. Our research
has attempted to narrow this range of uncertainty around model-projected
future warming and to assess whether the upper or lower end of the model
range is more likely. We showed that there are strong statistical
relationships between how models simulate fundamental features of the
Earth's energy budget over the recent past, and how much warming models
simulate in the future. Importantly, we find that models that match
observations the best over the recent past, tend to simulate more warming
in the future than the average model. Thus, statistically combining
information from physical models and observations tells us that we should
expect more warming (with smaller uncertainty ranges) than we would expect
if we were just looking at physical models in isolation and ignoring
observations.

*About the speaker: *

[image: [speaker photo]] Patrick is a postdoctoral research scientist at
the Carnegie Institution for Science at Stanford. He holds a Bachelor's
degree in Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences from the University of Wisconsin
- Madison and a Ph.D. in Earth and Ocean Sciences from Duke University.He
has interests in climate modeling, Earth's energy budget, emergent
properties of complex systems, chaos, statistics, climate-society
interaction and quantifying difficult-to-quantify things.

*Contact information:*

email: pbrown () carnegiescience edu
Twitter: @PatrickTBrown31

*ABOUT THE COLLOQUIUM:*

See the Colloquium website, http://ee380.stanford.edu, for scheduled
speakers, FAQ, and additional information. Stanford and SCPD students can
enroll in EE380 for one unit of credit. Anyone is welcome to attend; talks
are webcast live and archived for on-demand viewing over the web.

*MAILING LIST INFORMATION:*

This announcement is sent to multiple mailing lists. If you are signed up
on our private EE380 list you can remove yourself using the widget at the
upper left hand corner of the Colloquium web page. Other lists have other
management protocols.



-------------------------------------------
Archives: https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/247/=now
RSS Feed: https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/rss/247/18849915-ae8fa580
Modify Your Subscription: https://www.listbox.com/member/?member_id=18849915&id_secret=18849915-aa268125
Unsubscribe Now: 
https://www.listbox.com/unsubscribe/?member_id=18849915&id_secret=18849915-32545cb4&post_id=20180114104717:30D854C8-F942-11E7-86D9-99B07B0EA7CA
Powered by Listbox: http://www.listbox.com