Re Biennial Report Shows US at Risk of Losing Global R&D Leadership to China

["Dave Farber" <farber () gmail com>]

Begin forwarded message:

> From: Gordon Peterson <gep2 () terabites com>
> Date: January 23, 2018 at 5:20:41 PM EST
> To: dave () farber net
> Subject: Re: [IP] Biennial Report Shows US at Risk of Losing Global R&D Leadership to China
>
> David, I think this has already happened.
>
> If we were to cut off imports of computer and other high-tech (even LOW-tech) consumer electronics equipment from 
> China... and Korea, I suppose... the USA would QUICKLY become a third-world country.  You can't buy a cell phone, a 
> computer (laptop, desktop, whatever), keyboard, mouse, router, monitor, TV set, clock radio, alarm clock, 
> motherboard, hard drive, flash drive, SDcard or micro SD card, memory module, camera, microprocessor, microwave oven, 
> LED light bulb, compact fluorescent or cold cathode light bulb ... NONE of those are made in the USA any more.
> You've been over there.  You've seen their amazing high speed rail networks, their huge modern cities, etc etc.  Most 
> Americans haven't a freaking CLUE what's going on there.
>
> > On 1/23/2018 3:39 PM, Dave Farber wrote:
> >
> > ---------- Forwarded message ---------
> > From: FYI <fyi () aip-info org>
> > Date: Tue, Jan 23, 2018 at 4:11 PM
> > Subject: Biennial Report Shows US at Risk of Losing Global R&D Leadership to China
> > To: <farber () central cis upenn edu>
> >
> >
> >
> > View in browser
> >
> > Number 7: January 23, 2017
> > Biennial Report Shows US at Risk of Losing Global R&D Leadership to China
> > While the U.S. continues to lead in many science and engineering measures, including overall R&D spending, China is 
> > rapidly catching up with the U.S. in the rankings, according to the National Science Board’s latest Science and 
> > Engineering Indicators report.
> > On Jan. 18, the National Science Board released the biennial Science and Engineering Indicators, a congressionally 
> > mandated report that provides extensive, policy-neutral information on the state of the global science and 
> > engineering (S&E) enterprise. Accompanying the report is a digest that highlights 42 indicators grouped into themes 
> > such as R&D spending, STEM education and workforce, invention and innovation, and the public understanding of 
> > science.
> >
> > The report finds that the world’s nations are continuing to accelerate the growth of their knowledge- and 
> > technology-intensive economies. And as in other recent iterations, the report documents how the S&E landscape — 
> > historically concentrated in the U.S., Europe, and Japan — is rapidly shifting as China and other countries continue 
> > to increase their R&D investments.
> >
> > The report makes clear that while the U.S. remains the global leader in many S&E measures — such as total R&D 
> > investment, advanced S&E degree production, and venture capital investment — China has continued its rapid rise in 
> > the rankings.
> > China R&D spending up 18 percent annually on average since 2000
> >
> > Global R&D expenditures have more than doubled since 2005, according to the report, growing at an average rate 
> > between 6.3 and 7 percent per year. Three regions — East/Southeast and South Asia, North America, and Europe — 
> > comprise 90 percent of the nearly $2 trillion total.
> >
> > The U.S. remains the world leader in overall R&D spending, growing an average of 4 percent per year between 2000 and 
> > 2015. However, Asian economies surpassed both the U.S. and Europe as having the largest concentration of R&D 
> > spending, rising from 25 percent of the global share in 2000 to 40 percent in 2015.
> >
> > China has seen by far the largest R&D growth, accounting for almost one-third of the global increase over that 
> > period and reaching 21 percent of the global total in 2015 with an average growth rate of 18 percent per year. At 
> > the same time, North America and Europe saw their global shares decrease to 28 percent and 22 percent, respectively.
> >
> > The rapid growth of S&E economies in China and other Asian countries also contrasts with the relative stagnation in 
> > U.S. R&D intensity — a measure of R&D expenditure as a percentage of GDP.                                            
> >                Although U.S. R&D intensity has stayed relatively stable, hovering near 2.7 percent in recent years, 
> > it dropped in global ranking from eighth place in 2009 to eleventh place in 2015. Meanwhile, China and South Korea’s 
> > R&D intensities have doubled since 2000, reaching 2.1 percent and 4.2 percent, respectively, in 2015.
> >
> > The report notes that while federal R&D funding has generally increased annually since the 1950s, the government’s 
> > share of total U.S. R&D spending has steadily declined, reaching a historic low of 24 percent in 2015 – far below 
> > the peak of 67 percent in 1964. The report says this trend is primarily                                              
> >              due to business R&D growth outpacing federal spending. It also identifies the reduction in federal R&D 
> > funding in the period following the Great Recession as a factor.
> >  
> > However, the federal government remains the largest funder of basic research, providing $37 billion or 44 percent of 
> > the total. At a release event for the report on Jan. 18, National Science Foundation Director France Córdova 
> > stressed the impact federal investment has in sustaining U.S. leadership in                                          
> >                  S&E, saying:
> >
> > We may be an innovation leader today, but other nations are rapidly gaining ground. It is not inconceivable that we 
> > may be overtaken in time. Our investment in basic research must remain a national priority.
> >
> >
> > R&D competition ‘not a zero-sum game’
> >
> > When asked at the release event to elaborate on the report’s findings, NSB member Geraldine Richmond, who oversaw 
> > the report’s assembly, said that the board is concerned with how current trends in U.S. R&D funding may impact the 
> > country’s leading role in S&E. She warned that the ongoing                                                           
> > decline of federally-funded R&D “will continue to erode [the U.S.’] ability to be competitive to the level that you 
> > see other countries rising, such as China.”
> >  
> > Richmond noted that while scientific and technological progress in China and other nations generates competition for 
> > the U.S., it is “not a zero-sum game.” The expansion of the global R&D landscape, she said, also creates new 
> > opportunities for international collaboration and innovation.
> >  
> > Richmond also highlighted the rising trend of R&D specializations, such as China’s interest in digital 
> > communications, semiconductors, telecommunications, and optics. Therefore, in the context of an increasingly 
> > interconnected world, she said “The big question is where do we want [the U.S.] to lead in S&T, and where are we 
> > content to participate?”
> >  
> > While the Trump administration has scaled back support for larger multinational scientific collaborations, it has 
> > also reinforced bilateral partnerships. Last year, the U.S. and China signified their commitment to extend their 
> > long-standing S&T agreement, which was last renewed in 2011.
> > Congress takes note of China’s R&D rise
> >
> > The rising competition in S&E, particularly that posed by China, has been a focus of several recent congressional 
> > hearings. These hearings highlighted that the Chinese government has taken an aggressive approach to rapidly grow 
> > R&D in several areas, particularly artificial intelligence, quantum technology, and space technology. These areas 
> > are among a number of priority science projects identified in China’s current five-year strategic plan for social 
> > and economic development, which also emphasizes innovation as the primary engine for economic growth. The plan 
> > establishes China’s goal of achieving a 2.5 percent R&D intensity by 2020.
> >  
> > House Science Committee Chair Lamar Smith stressed the importance of maintaining U.S. leadership in quantum 
> > technologies at a hearing last October, pointing out that China has “successfully sent the first-ever quantum 
> > transmission from Earth to an orbiting satellite.” He said that “Although the U.S. retains global leadership in the 
> > theoretical physics that underpins quantum computing and related technologies, we may be slipping behind others in 
> > developing the quantum applications.”
> >  
> > Meanwhile, at a Jan. 9 House Armed Services Subcommittee hearing on China’s pursuit of emerging technologies, 
> > Subcommittee Chair Elise Stefanik (R-NY) noted that China’s plans for technology innovation comprise “a top-down, 
> > government-driven agenda that provides a roadmap for strategic collaboration between industry, academia, and civil 
> > society.” She said that the U.S. should reflect on the Chinese government’s recognition of innovation as a driver of 
> > economic growth, and called for “a national-level dialogue for science and technology policy” that will encompass 
> > both defense and the broader economy.  
> > Contact the Author
> >
> > Alexis Wolfe
> > American Institute of Physics
> > awolfe () aip org
> > (301) 209-3182
> > More From FYI
> >
> > National Academies Report Charts Future of Space-Based Observations
> >
> > The second Decadal Survey for Earth Science and Applications from Space, finalized in early January, calls on NASA's 
> > Earth Science Division to prioritize its missions based on a tiered program of target observations. It also provides 
> > recommendations for the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and U.S. Geological Survey.
> > Read More >
> >  
> > House Committee Explores R&D Priorities and Potential Reforms at DOE
> >
> > At a recent House Energy and Commerce Committee hearing, participants touched on a wide range of issues related to 
> > the Department of Energy, including R&D priorities and the management and structure of the national lab system. The 
> > committee framed the hearing as a prelude to potential DOE reform legislation.
> > Read More >
> >  
> > The Week of January 22
> >
> > - Science Agencies Shut Down
> > - China Fast Approaching US R&D Spending Lead
> > - National Defense Strategy Highlights Innovation
> > - Plus: In Case You Missed It / Events / Opportunities
> > Read More >
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> >
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