Re China's breathtaking transformation into a scientific superpower

["Dave Farber" <dave () farber net>]

---------- Forwarded message ---------
From: Gene Spafford <spaf () purdue edu>
Date: Mon, Jan 22, 2018 at 9:54 AM
Subject: Re: [IP] China's breathtaking transformation into a scientific
superpower
To: Dave Farber <dave () farber net>



This future (although not China specifically) was outlined in the
“Gathering Storm”* reports by Norm Augustine et al.  back in 2007, and the
sequel in 2010.  Not only did they predict the loss of US leadership in
S&T, but the follow-on effects on the economy and more.  Similar to other
medium-to-long-range studies, political leaders decided not to do anything
about the recommendations because (1) it involved money, (2) it involved
scientists, and science is a dirty word to one political segment**, and (3)
we weren’t in crisis yet.   Instead, we have had political movement in the
other direction — impugning the integrity and worth of teachers and
scientists, cutting support for education in K-grey, shunning some of the
best & brightest who want to immigrate, and make workers in industry
(steel, coal) out to be the ones who should get the most support of
government.  We even have the leadership pandering to a segment of the base
that is seeking to accelerate their religious vision of a world-wide
apocalypse; this group does not see a need to invest in the future.

Unfortunately, in our current fact-free political environment, the
underlying problems are likely to intensify.  As noted by the commission,
once we’ve lost the lead, it will be very if difficult — if even possible —
to get it back.

* -  (worth reading if you haven’t already)
Rising Above the Gathering Storm:
https://www.nap.edu/catalog/11463/rising-above-the-gathering-storm-energizing-and-employing-america-for
Rising Above the Gathering Storm, Revisited:
https://www.nap.edu/catalog/12999/rising-above-the-gathering-storm-revisited-rapidly-approaching-category-5

** -
Reports are that in the current West Wing, the word “professor” is consider
a pejorative, and in Cabinet agencies advisory committees are being
disbanded or restocked only with business people.

On Jan 22, 2018, at 8:05 AM, Dave Farber <dave () farber net> wrote:


---------- Forwarded message ---------
From: Dewayne Hendricks <dewayne () warpspeed com>
Date: Mon, Jan 22, 2018 at 6:20 AM
Subject: [Dewayne-Net] China's breathtaking transformation into a
scientific superpower
To: Multiple recipients of Dewayne-Net <dewayne-net () warpspeed com>


China’s breathtaking transformation into a scientific superpower
By Robert J. Samuelson
Jan 21 2018
<
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/chinas-breathtaking-transformation-into-a-scientific-superpower/2018/01/21/03f883e6-fd44-11e7-8f66-2df0b94bb98a_story.html
>

The National Science Foundation and the National Science Board have just
released their biennial “Science & Engineering Indicators,” a voluminous
document describing the state of American technology. There are facts and
figures on research and development, innovation and engineers. But the
report’s main conclusion lies elsewhere: China has become — or is on the
verge of becoming — a scientific and technical superpower.

We should have expected nothing less. After all, science and technology
constitute the knowledge base for economically advanced societies and
military powers, and China aspires to become the world leader in both.
Still, the actual numbers are breathtaking for the speed with which they’ve
been realized.

Remember that a quarter-century ago, China’s economy was tiny and its
high-tech sector barely existed. Since then, here’s what’s happened,
according to the “Indicators” report:

● China has become the second- largest R&D spender, accounting for 21
percent of the world total of nearly $2 trillion in 2015. Only the United
States, at 26 percent, ranks higher, but if present growth rates continue,
China will soon become the biggest spender. From 2000 to 2015, Chinese R&D
outlays grew an average of 18 percent annually, more than four times faster
than the U.S. rate of 4 percent.

● There has been an explosion of technical papers by Chinese teams.
Although the United States and the European Union each produce more studies
on biomedical subjects, China leads in engineering studies. American papers
tend to be cited more often than the Chinese papers , suggesting that they
involve more fundamental research questions, but China is catching up.

● China has dramatically expanded its technical workforce. From 2000 to
2014, the annual number of science and engineering bachelor’s degree
graduates went from about 359,000 to 1.65 million. Over the same period,
the comparable number of U.S. graduates went from about 483,000 to 742,000.

Not only has Chinese technology expanded. It has also gotten more
ambitious. Much of China’s high-tech production once consisted of
assembling sophisticated components made elsewhere. Now, says the report,
it’s venturing into demanding areas “such as supercomputers and smaller
jetliners.”

Of course, there are qualifications. China still lags in patents received.
Over the past decade, American firms and inventors account for about half
the U.S. patents annually, and most of the rest go to Europeans and
Japanese. Recall also that China’s population of 1.4 billion is more than
four times ours; not surprisingly, it needs more scientists, engineers and
technicians.

In a sane world — shorn of nationalistic, economic, racial and ethnic
conflicts — none of this would be particularly alarming. Technology is
mobile, and gains made in China could be enjoyed elsewhere, and vice versa.
But in our contentious world, China’s technological prowess is potentially
threatening, as the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission, a
congressional watchdog group, has often pointed out.

One danger is military. If China makes a breakthrough in a crucial
technology — satellites, missiles, cyberwarfare, artificial intelligence,
electromagnetic weapons — the result could be a major shift in the
strategic balance and, possibly, war.

Even if this doesn’t happen, warns the commission, China’s determination to
dominate new industries such as artificial intelligence, telecommunications
and computers could lead to economic warfare if China maintains subsidies
and discriminatory policies to sustain its firms’ competitive advantage.

[snip]

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