Re There's no future for taxis': New York yellow cab drivers drowning in debt

["Dave Farber" <farber () gmail com>]

Begin forwarded message:

> From: Bob Hinden <bob.hinden () gmail com>
> Date: October 20, 2017 at 4:42:03 PM EDT
> To: "John R. Levine" <johnl () iecc com>
> Cc: Bob Hinden <bob.hinden () gmail com>, Dave Farber <farber () gmail com>
> Subject: Re: [IP] Re There's no future for taxis': New York yellow cab drivers drowning in debt
>
> John,
>
> I use Gett a lot when I am in Tel Aviv.  Yes, they are taxi’s, but half the time they don’t know where they are going 
> and use the app just like Uber/Lyft.  Further, I have hailed taxi’s who didn’t even have a phone, and had no idea 
> where my hotel was.  Even after having them talk to the hotel on my phone.
>
> Taxi’s are going downhill fast.
>
> Bob
>
>
> > On Oct 20, 2017, at 12:18 PM, Dave Farber <farber () gmail com> wrote:
> >
> >
> >
> >
> > Begin forwarded message:
> >
> > > From: "John Levine" <johnl () iecc com>
> > > Date: October 20, 2017 at 3:02:05 PM EDT
> > > To: dave () farber net
> > > Subject: Re: [IP] There's no future for taxis': New York yellow cab drivers drowning in debt
> > >
> > > In article <24E0A272-6F4F-4DC6-90E8-F4A64462CD88 () gmail com> you write:
> > > > > 'There's no future for taxis': New York yellow cab drivers drowning in debt
> > > > > Ride-hail services like Uber and Lyft have saturated the market, and an exodus of drivers from cabs has made 
> > > > > medallion values drop –
> > > > leaving many owing money
> > > > > By Cecilia Saixue Watt
> > > > > Oct 20 2017
> > > > > <https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2017/oct/20/new-york-yellow-cab-taxi-medallion-value-cost>
> > >
> > > Everything they say is true, and the situation for existing NYC
> > > medallion owners is pretty bad, but I don't see the long term
> > > situation as being as dire as they say.  The number of NYC taxi
> > > medallions has been artifically limited since the 1930s, due to
> > > pressure from existing medallion owners who took out huge loans to pay
> > > for theirs.  As a result, while there are plenty of taxis in Manhattan
> > > and at the airports, you cannot find one in the outer boroughs, or
> > > when you need to get to the airport at 5 PM on a rainy day.  A few
> > > years ago they added a green stripe medallion which only allows
> > > pickups outside Manhattan but it was too little too late.  Also, NYC
> > > has also distinguished between taxis which you hail on the street and
> > > car services which you book ahead.  Unlike in most places, Uber in NYC
> > > is a legal car service and it is common for a driver to have several
> > > phones on his dash to take calls from several car services.
> > >
> > > Many medallion owners and lessors will go bankrupt and have to sell
> > > their medallions to other people at a loss, which is certainly bad for
> > > them but will eventually bring the cost of the medallions down so the
> > > payments aren't a burden and driving a taxi makes economic sense.  The
> > > US bankruptcy system is unusual and a UK newspaper may not appreciate
> > > how quickly US bankrupts recover and go back into business.
> > >
> > > Uber continues to lose money on every trip, which Stein's law tells us
> > > will eventually have to stop, and their main advantage these days is
> > > that you can use the same Uber app to hail rides in many different
> > > places.  If you mostly ride in a single city, as most people do, there
> > > are other apps, e.g., when I'm in London I use Gett which gets me a
> > > real taxi with a knowledgable driver and no surge pricing rather than
> > > an Uber driver who only knows what his GPS tells him.  So I expect
> > > that the black car business will even out as well, as prices adjust
> > > to meet actual costs.
> > >
> > > R's,
> > > John
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