Re Almost half of Republicans want war with North Korea, a new poll says. Is it the Trump Effect? - The Washington Post

["Dave Farber" <farber () gmail com>]

Begin forwarded message:

> From: Geoff Kuenning <geoff () cs hmc edu>
> Date: October 16, 2017 at 2:51:06 AM EDT
> To: dave () farber net
> Cc: "ip" <ip () listbox com>
> Subject: Re: [IP] Re Almost half of Republicans want war with North Korea, a new poll says. Is it the Trump Effect? - 
> The Washington Post
>
> I suspect that most ordinary Americans, and especially those predisposed towards a first strike, live in a fantasy 
> world where nuclear bombs are simultaneously surgical (they only destroy what you want to destroy, and have minor 
> side effects outside the blast radius) and all-destructive (a few well-placed nukes would eliminate all of North 
> Korea, including all of their weapons).  In that world, Seoul and Tokyo wouldn't be at risk.
>
> The average American isn't capable of doing the simple calculation that shows that with a four-mile blast radius, 
> around 1,000 H-bombs would be needed to flatten the country.  (I was surprised it's that small; NK is a tiny place.)  
> Still, that's about 2/3 of our current deployed stockpile of strategic warheads.
>
> If we wanted to prevent North Korea from attacking Seoul and Tokyo, the bombs would have to explode pretty much 
> simultaneously, and catch the conventional forces by surprise so they couldn't launch their rockets before the 
> incoming missiles landed--highly unlikely, since they're on hair-trigger alert, and some of the attack would have to 
> come from bombers.  And that assumes no hardened bunkers, of course.
>
> Donald Trump, who probably has never heard of pi-r-squared, certainly falls into the "can't do the calculation" 
> category.
>
> > Begin forwarded message:
> >
> > > From: John Day <jeanjour () comcast net>
> > > Date: October 15, 2017 at 3:44:16 PM EDT
> > > To: Dave Farber <farber () gmail com>
> > > Subject: Re: [IP] Almost half of Republicans want war with North
> > > Korea, a new poll says. Is it the Trump Effect? - The Washington
> > > Post
> > > I don’t know about using this without his permission. It was Mike’s
> > > post on Facebook.  But he makes a good point that should get wider
> > > coverage.
> > > "I have come to the conclusion that nobody within Uber-distance of
> > > the White House has considered the economic impact on the *US* of
> > > the destruction of South Korean high-tech manufacturing. Let's make
> > > a short list...
> > > "Most of the LCD manufacturing capacity in the world
> > > A huge fraction, maybe the majority, of Flash fab capacity
> > > Large fraction of both DRAM and SRAM fab capacity
> > > Significant fraction of ASICs & SOCs for Smartfones
> > > Large fraction of all Smartfones & other mobile phones
> > > World's largest shipyard (yes, that's hi-tech these days)
> > > "Depending on the device, these generalizations can hit much, much
> > > harder in specific cases that we all know and love.
> > > "When you look at this list and ponder how many things and companies
> > > would take a massive blow to the head, and how there has never been
> > > any mention made of this in the media, it sure makes me wonder
> > > whether anyone is looking at the big picture."
> > > > > On Oct 15, 2017, at 15:29, Dave Farber <farber () gmail com> wrote:
> > > > > Please send it to me
> > > > > On Oct 15, 2017, at 3:28 PM, John Day <jeanjour () comcast net> wrote:
> > > > > Did you see Mike O’Dell’s comment on what happens to South Korea
> > > > > if that happens and the impact that has on the US high tech
> > > > > economy?
> > > > > > > On Oct 15, 2017, at 15:23, DAVID FARBER <dfarber () me com> wrote:
> > > > > > > Begin forwarded message:
> > > > > > > From: Herb Lin <herblin () stanford edu>
> > > > > > > Date: October 15, 2017 at 2:10:43 PM EDT
> > > > > > > To: "ip () listbox com" <ip () listbox com>, Dave Farber <dave () farber net>
> > > > > > > Subject: Almost half of Republicans want war with North Korea, a
> > > > > > > new poll says. Is it the Trump Effect? - The Washington Post
> > > > > > > Noted without comment.
> > > > > > > Sent from my Verizon 4G LTE smartphone
> > > > > > > https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2017/10/14/almost-half-of-republicans-want-war-with-north-korea-says-a-new-poll-is-it-the-trump-effect/?utm_term=.7bac90036d79
> > > > > > > Sent from my Verizon 4G LTE smartphone
> > > > > > Archives  | Modify Your Subscription | Unsubscribe Now     
>
> -- 
>   Geoff Kuenning   geoff () cs hmc edu    http://www.cs.hmc.edu/~geoff/
>
> The P in "PDF" is a lie.



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