World leaders rehearse for a pandemic that will come 'sooner than we expect'

["Dave Farber" <farber () gmail com>]

Begin forwarded message:

> From: Dewayne Hendricks <dewayne () warpspeed com>
> Date: October 24, 2017 at 6:24:01 PM EDT
> To: Multiple recipients of Dewayne-Net <dewayne-net () warpspeed com>
> Subject: [Dewayne-Net] World leaders rehearse for a pandemic that will come 'sooner than we expect'
> Reply-To: dewayne-net () warpspeed com
>
> World leaders rehearse for a pandemic that will come ‘sooner than we expect’
> By Lena H. Sun
> Oct 24 2017
> <https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/to-your-health/wp/2017/10/24/world-leaders-rehearse-for-a-pandemic-that-will-come-sooner-than-we-expect/>
>
> The government ministers were facing a new infectious disease outbreak. The mysterious virus was sickening and 
> killing people with alarming speed. Some patients had to be placed on ventilators to help them breathe. The new virus 
> seemed resistant to antibiotics and antiviral medicine.
>
> Within a week, officials had closed a major hospital and schools and quarantined thousands of people. Fear and panic 
> spread quickly as people in neighboring countries became infected and died.
>
> That scenario was part of a pandemic simulation held during the World Bank’s annual meeting in Washington this month. 
> It’s not the kind of event that people would typically associate with the World Bank. But it’s the fourth such 
> exercise the bank has helped organize in the past year, reflecting what experts say is the growing awareness outside 
> the traditional global health sector of the increasing threat and economic disruption posed by a global pandemic.
>
> The chaotic and “horrendously inefficient” early response to the 2014 Ebola epidemic in West Africa that killed more 
> than 11,000 people was the catalyst for the simulations, said Tim Evans, senior director for health, nutrition and 
> population at the World Bank.
>
> “We realized that people were just making it up as they were going along, including us,” Evans said, referring to the 
> Ebola response. The bank wanted to “move from a history of panic and neglect to one where we’re going to start to 
> prepare much more systematically to be ready for the 100 percent probability we will be dealing with this again,” he 
> said. “Probably sooner than we expect.’”
>
> Outbreaks of life-threatening infectious diseases are spreading faster and with more unpredictability than ever.
>
> An unusually large plague outbreak in Madagascar has killed 106 people since August. About 70 percent of the cases 
> are the more virulent form of pneumonic plague that spreads by coughing, sneezing or spitting and is almost always 
> fatal if untreated with antibiotics.
>
> In Uganda, officials are on high alert because of a recently reported outbreak of the deadly Marburg virus that has 
> killed one person and may have exposed hundreds more at health facilities and during traditional burial ceremonies. 
> Marburg is a highly infectious hemorrhagic fever similar to Ebola and is among the most virulent pathogens known to 
> infect humans.
>
> For the World Bank simulation, organizers looked at the impact on travel and tourism of an outbreak of a mysterious 
> respiratory virus in a hypothetical country. Participants included finance, health and tourism ministers from about a 
> dozen countries, and officials from organizations including the World Health Organization, the Centers for Disease 
> Control and Prevention, and the International Air Transport Association.
>
> Discussions during the 90-minute session were off the record. But in interviews after the event, organizers said the 
> step-by-step scenario made the theoretical possibility seem very real for participants. In particular, it drove home 
> the need for speedy, accurate information-sharing and strong coordination within and across governments and 
> institutions.
>
> [snip]
>
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