Stavridis: A plan for North Korea, before this spirals out of control

["Dave Farber" <farber () gmail com>]

Begin forwarded message:

> From: Richard Forno <rforno () infowarrior org>
> Date: August 11, 2017 at 2:16:13 PM EDT
> To: Infowarrior List <infowarrior () attrition org>
> Cc: Dave Farber <dave () farber net>
> Subject: Stavridis: A plan for North Korea, before this spirals out of control
>
> A plan for North Korea, before this spirals out of control
> By James Stavridis   August 09, 2017
> Admiral James Stavridis was the 16th Supreme Allied Commander at NATO, and is dean of the Fletcher School of Law and 
> Diplomacy at Tufts University. His latest book is “Sea Power.”
>
> https://www.bostonglobe.com/opinion/2017/08/09/plan-for-north-korea-before-this-spirals-out-control/Q23bbp1BbDPlTxdvYxv3LK/story.html
>
> Think of it as two streams of danger approaching each other — one is the ability to launch long-range 
> intercontinental ballistic missiles; the other is miniaturizing and hardening a nuclear warhead to ride aboard. As in 
> the movie “Ghostbusters,” you really don’t want the streams to cross. Unfortunately, they may have just done so, at 
> least according to US intelligence reports leaked this week.
>
> While this moment was long predicted, most analysts thought it was 18 to 24 months away. The stunning acceleration in 
> the nuclear weapons program of North Korea has caught the United States off guard and seemingly without a coherent 
> strategic approach for the growing threat posed by Kim Jong Un. Just as North Korea has accelerated its nuclear 
> program, we need to accelerate our thinking. What should we do?
>
> Dial down the rhetoric. Countering a young mercurial leader with a bad haircut sputtering about turning our ally 
> South Korea into a “sea of fire” with an old mercurial president sputtering about “fire and fury the like the world 
> has never seen” isn’t helping anything. President Trump sounded vaguely like the Dragon Queen Daenerys of “Game of 
> Thrones” talking about her brood of dragons igniting Westeros. We need to model ourselves less on General George 
> Patton and more on “Cool Hand Luke” while not sinking to the level of Kim Jung Un’s bombast.
>
> Dial up the intelligence and surveillance. Globally, we have a lot of crises to watch, and a limited number of 
> intelligence assets — Syria, Iraq, Islamic State, al-Shabab, Boko Haram, Ukraine, and many other trouble spots 
> compete with North Korea for the overhead sensors (satellites and long-dwell unmanned aircraft) as well as human 
> intelligence, artificial intelligence/big data, and cyber espionage. Given Kim’s rhetoric and apparently increasing 
> offensive capability, we need to focus even more attention on the Korean peninsula.
>
> Increase our missile defenses. Both here in the United States (including, of course, our Pacific territories, like 
> Guam) and on the Korean Peninsula (with 200,000 US citizens), we need strong ballistic missile defense. This comes 
> from the sea-based AEGIS guided missile destroyers and cruisers; land-based Patriots and Theater High Altitude Air 
> Defense (THAAD); and local point defense systems.
>
> Focus on cyber options. Without delving into a highly classified conversation, suffice to say we have significant 
> cyber options. These include three components: cyber espionage to understand fully the capabilities of Kim’s systems; 
> defensive measures that could undermine his testing programs; and offensive means to attack his command and control 
> and force posture. All three should be increased, tested, and deployed as necessary.
>
> Take counsel with our South Korean allies. After all, they are the “front-line state” in every sense. We need to be 
> deeply respectful of their views, intelligence-gathering capability, and theories about how to deal with the North. 
> We spend too much time talking about the North Koreans and too little time paying attention to what our South Korean 
> allies believe.
>
> Build a regional approach. We are blessed with strong and capable allies in Asia beyond the Korean Peninsula itself: 
> above all Japan, but also Australia, New Zealand, Thailand, and the Philippines (notwithstanding recent strains 
> emanating from President Duterte). In addition to those treaty allies, we have close friends and partners in 
> Singapore, Malaysia, India, Indonesia, and others. Every nation in Asia has a vested interest in avoiding a major war 
> — we should leverage the region.
>
> Train for and exercise the military options. While a military response would have significant downside, it would be 
> irresponsible not to prepare for one. Our Combatant Commander for the Pacific, Admiral Harry Harris, is a brilliant 
> strategic and operational thinker, and his team in Honolulu will be presenting all options to the secretary of 
> defense and the president. We then need to be fully prepared to execute them, and that requires training and 
> exercising, especially at sea. These will run the spectrum from a massive preemptive strike to a precision 
> decapitation — none are appealing, but they must be on the table.
>
> Pressure China to “walk the walk.” Of late, the Chinese have talked a good game, including signing up for the new 
> sanctions passed by the UN Security Council. But given their control of some 90 percent of the North Korean economy, 
> they have yet to truly compress North Korea’s financial resources. In the end, all roads to Pyongyang lead through 
> Beijing, and we need China to squeeze the young dictator. This may require highly targeted “secondary sanctions” on 
> Chinese businesses doing commerce with North Korea.
>
> Take a sensible negotiating position. We are never going to get China on our side without making clear we do not 
> intend to change the regime or unify the Korean Peninsula. Its vested interest is in the status quo — a divided (and 
> therefore vastly weaker) Korea and a stable standoff without refugee flows. Consider four-party talks with the United 
> States, China, North Korea, and South Korea at the table, and work to convince Kim that his life and regime are not 
> in danger — the examples of Moammar Khadafy and Saddam Hussein (who were destroyed after giving up weapons of mass 
> destruction) are very much in his mind.
>
> Make this an international issue. Using the UN Security Council even more fully is crucial, and kudos to UN 
> Ambassador Nikki Haley for the resolution against North Korea. We need to continue to make this about the entire 
> global community against North Korea, not a stand-off between the United States and Kim Jong Un. What about an 
> international flotilla conducting a true blockade of the North, for example?
>
> This is the first significant international crisis for the Trump administration, and we will learn a lot about our 
> president and his team over the coming weeks. While the miniaturization is a surprising development, it should not be 
> a deep shock given that it has been long predicted. We have two decades of experience dealing with North Korea and 
> need to put together a coherent, thoughtful plan going forward. In that masterpiece of leadership literature, Mario 
> Puzo’s “The Godfather,” Don Corleone tells us not to make the mistake of hating our enemies with blind emotion — it 
> clouds your judgment. Let’s get to work strategically, calmly, methodically, and coherently before this spirals out 
> of control.
>
> Admiral James Stavridis was the 16th Supreme Allied Commander at NATO, and is dean of the Fletcher School of Law and 
> Diplomacy at Tufts University. His latest book is “Sea Power.”



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