The Broadband Plan, Early March

[David Farber <dave () farber net>]

Begin forwarded message:

From: dewayne () warpspeed com (Dewayne Hendricks)
Date: March 4, 2010 11:03:33 AM EST
To: Dewayne-Net Technology List <xyzzy () warpspeed com>
Subject: [Dewayne-Net] The Broadband Plan, Early March

[Note:  This item comes from friend Dave Burstein.  DLH]

The Broadband Plan, Early March
Written by Dave Burstein          
<http://fastnetnews.com/dslprime/42-d/2623-the-broadband-plan-early-march>

The U.S. broadband plan accomplishes very little for affordability, quality, speed, or availability of broadband in the 
U.S., although it has other important achievements I describe below. 

In particular 
The “100 megabits to 100 million homes” is right on target  for what will be achieved by 2015 without any broadband 
plan. (FCC/Columbia CITI November 2009). Based on cable company's official statements, I reported in August 2009 102 
million homes would have 100 megabit capable DOCSIS by around 2013. http://bit.ly/c7jMuJ 
Fewer than 4% of U.S. homes that can only get satellite (“unserved”) will be reached because of the plan. It's more 
likely only 1-2% of homes will be upgraded. 
Broadband prices are more likely to increase than decrease because of the plan, especially if a multi-billion dollar 
Internet tax is included. There's nothing wrong with taxing the Internet like anything else, but this “fee” goes to the 
shareholders and bondholders of phone companies, not re-opening closed hospitals. 
Only a small fraction of the poor will get substantial help according to the best information I can find. In 
particular, the much-touted cable A+ plan provides “back of the bus broadband” throttled to a tenth the normal speed, 
available to less than one in five of the poor, and actually more expensive than Verizon's recent promotion. AT&T has 
offered similar, but I don't know if it's included.  
Since nearly all mobile phones will include broadband in a few years and far more than 90% of families have a mobile 
phone, the 90% take rate in 2020 would almost certainly be achieved without the plan, probably several years earlier. 

I sent the data above to Julius for factchecking. He sent back no contrary facts. http://bit.ly/9v0dRM
Expected but not yet announced
Everyone who hasn't seen the plan is still asking “What's in it.” The Wall Street Journal and Washington Post today had 
apparently contradictory stories despite probably getting their leaks from the same sources. Most of it is public 
already if a reporter digs. I've based the on public statements and non-FCC sources, not “leaks” from the FCC. Expect a 
few errors.

Highly likely to be included: 
Microsoft and Dell will have a computer discount program probably implemented by One Economy and Connected Nation. 
“Lifeline broadband” will be called help for the poor but could be corporate welfare in disguise 
Discounts on service from the cablecos (A+) and probably AT&T. A+ as announced is a shallow pr exercise to prevent real 
price drops. 
USF totally re-focused, with the recipients being pushed to convert to all IP. Free.fr, Verizon FiOS, and AT&T U-Verse 
are showing how for much less expensive IP networks can be compared to the PSTN. Most details not yet announced, but 
there's an internal push to use the broadband plan to reduce some of the obvious waste in the program. 
A focused program for the last 3-5% that will include wireless. Most of the remaining “unserved” are so scattered there 
is no easy way to reach them except through the existing local telco or cableco. 
Satellite (5 megabit, somewhat reduced latency) for the last 1% or so very expensive to reach with terrestrial 
broadband. $91K/home for Hawaiian politicians and Sandwich Islands illustrate how USF can be wasteful/abused, and they 
are trying to avoid similar. Note that serving 1% by satellite reduces the $20-35B estimates in September possibly in 
half. The $350B, beloved of lobbyists and uninformed reporters, never was on the table. 
Some school and library program put forth in the name of broadband adoption. 
Some transfer of spectrum from defense etc. to commercial, but this could be minimal 
Pole attachment and other rules that are important but I don't understand 
E-rate and ideally USF spending details made public on the web, including improved public bidding for e-rate contracts 
Proposals on better but not complete disclosure of the details of different carrier’s broadband offerings 

[snip]RSS Feed: <http://www.warpspeed.com/wordpress>




-------------------------------------------
Archives: https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/247/=now
RSS Feed: https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/rss/247/
Powered by Listbox: http://www.listbox.com