Storms coming!

[Dave Farber <dfarber () me com>]

> From: "Earle Jones" <earle.jones () comcast net>
> To: "Dave Farber" <dfarber () me com>
> Date: January 16, 2010 03:10:44 PM EST
> Subject: Storms coming!
>
> Dave:  Greetings!  This is not exactly IP related, but I received it through the California State Parks system (west 
> coast folks need to know this):
>
> ALERT:
> ***
> Update
> Currently, the strong El Nino is reaching its peak in the Eastern Pacific, and now finally appears to be exerting an 
> influence on our weather. The strong jet has been apparent for quite some time out over the open water, but the 
> persistent block had prevented it from reaching the coast. Now that the block has dissolved completely, a 200+ kt 
> [this means approximately 230 miles per hour] jet is barreling towards us. Multiple large and powerful storm systems 
> are expected to slam into CA from the west and northwest over the coming two weeks, all riding this extremely powerful 
> jet stream directly into the state.
>
> The jet will itself provide tremendous dynamic lift, in addition to directing numerous disturbances right at the state 
> and supplying them with an ample oceanic moisture source. The jet will be at quite a low latitude over much of the 
> Pacific, so these storms will be quite cold, at least initially. Very heavy rainfall and strong to potentially very 
> strong winds will impact the lower elevations beginning late Sunday and continuing through at least the following 
> Sunday.. This will be the case for the entire state, from (and south of) the Mexican border all the way up to Oregon. 
> Above 3000-4000 feet, precipitation will be all snow, and since temperatures will be unusually cold for a 
> precipitation event of this magnitude, a truly prodigious amount of snowfall is likely to occur in the mountains, 
> possibly measured in the tens of feet in the Sierra after it’s all said and done.
>
> But there’s a big and rather threatening caveat to that (discussed below).Individual storm events are going to be hard 
> to time for at least few more days, since this jet is just about as powerful as they come (on this planet, anyway). 
> Between this Sunday and the following Sunday, I expect categorical statewide rainfall totals in excess of 3-4 inches. 
> That is likely to be a huge underestimate for most areas. Much of NorCal is likely to see 5-10 inches in the lowlands, 
> with 10-20 inches in orographically-favored areas. Most of SoCal will see 3-6 inches at lower elevations, with perhaps 
> triple that amount in favored areas.
>
> This is where things get even more interesting, though. The models are virtually unanimous in “reloading” the powerful 
> jet stream and forming an additional persistent kink 2000-3000 miles to our southwest after next Sunday. This is a 
> truly ominous pattern, because it implies the potential for a strong Pineapple-type connection to develop. Indeed, the 
> 12z GFS now shows copious warm rains falling between days 12 and 16 across the entire state. Normally, such as 
> scenario out beyond day seven would be dubious at best. Since the models are in such truly remarkable agreement, 
> however, and because of the extremely high potential impact of such an event, it’s worth mentioning now. Since there 
> will be a massive volume of freshly-fallen snow (even at relatively low elevations between 3000-5000 feet), even a 
> moderately warm storm event would cause very serious flooding. This situation will have to monitored closely. Even if 
> the tropical connection does not develop, expected rains in the coming 7-10 days will likely be sufficient to cause 
> flooding in and of themselves (even in spite of dry antecedent conditions).
>
> In addition to very heavy precipitation, powerful winds may result from very steep pressure gradients associated with 
> the large and deep low pressure centers expected to begin approaching the coast by early next week. Though it’s not 
> clear at the moment just how powerful these winds may be, there is certainly the potential for a widespread damaging 
> wind event at some point, and the high Sierra peaks are likely to see gusts in the 100-200 mph range (since the 200kt 
> jet at 200-300 mb will essentially run directly into the mountains at some point). The details of this will have to be 
> hashed out as the event(s) draw closer.
>
> In short, the next 2-3 weeks (at least) are likely to be more active across California than any other 2-3 week period 
> in recent memory. The potential exists for a dangerous flood scenario to arise at some point during this interval, 
> especially with the possibility of a heavy rain-on-snow event during late week 2. In some parts of Southern 
> California, a whole season’s worth of rain could fall over the course of 5-10 days. This is likely to be a rather 
> memorable event. Stay tuned.
> ***
>
> Here's a picture of what's coming:
>
> http://twitpic.com/y290d/full
>
> Good luck!
>
> earle
> *
> ________________________
> Earle Jones 
> 501 Portola Road #8008
> Portola Valley CA 94028
> Home:  650-424-4362
> Cell:  650-269-0035
> earle.jones () comcast net


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