Re: Wireless future road-blocked by backhaul

[David Farber <dave () farber net>]

Begin forwarded message:

From: "Herman Wagter \(Citynet\)" <herman.wagter () citynet nl>
Date: October 9, 2009 3:52:06 PM EDT
To: <dave () farber net>
Subject: RE: [IP] Wireless future road-blocked by backhaul

For IP if you wish.

There seems to be more roadblocks in the works.....


http://www.pcworld.com/printable/article/id,173320/printable.html

AT&T Wireless CEO Hints at 'Managing' iPhone Data Usage
In the face of skyrocketing wireless data usage and scarcity of new  
wireless
spectrum, AT&T begins a public discussion of its near-term options. Does
'managing' mean 'rationing'?
Mark Sullivan, PC World
Wednesday, October 07, 2009 04:11 PM PDT

CTIA Conference, San Diego--AT&T Wireless CEO Ralph de la Vega  
bemoaned the
disproportionate wireless bandwidth usage of a small number of its
smartphone customers [read iPhone users] in a speech to wireless  
industry
professionals here today, and hinted at an unpleasant way of dealing  
with
the problem.


Ralph De La Vega, C.EO. and president, AT&T Mobility. (Photo:
AT&T/Microsoft)

De la Vega spent his first 11 slides talking about the virtues of the  
U.S.
wireless industry versus the rest of the world, and of the quality and
popularity of AT&T's 3G wireless network and services in particular.  
He said
such a vibrant market needed no additional regulation from the FCC.
De la Vega talked about the enormous growth in demand for wireless  
broadband
service in the US, and about the immediate need to free up more wireless
spectrum to accommodate that growth.

But spectrum is hard to come by these days, and, as De la Vega pointed  
out,
even if new chunks of spectrum could be reallocated quickly, it still  
takes
a few years to build the networks that use that spectrum.

Meanwhile demand for mobile broadband rockets upward among wireless  
users.
De la Vega cited research showing that demand for wireless broadband has
grown 5,000 times in the last three years. That growth as roundly  
expected
to accelerate in the coming years.

But all that data usage is not evenly spread across AT&T's wireless  
customer
base, De la Vega says--far from it. He cited AT&T research showing  
that just
3 percent of AT&T's smartphone customers [read iPhone users] use 40  
percent
of all smartphone data, that they consume 13 times the data of "the  
average
smartphone customer," yet represent less than 1 percent of AT&T's total
postpaid customer base.

Big problem-but AT&T management should have seen this coming a year  
ago. Or
maybe they did, but getting Wall Street to buy into the idea of  
aggressive
and costly network upgrades is like pulling teeth without anesthetic- 
lots of
screaming.

So in the absence of new spectrum and new, faster 4G networks, what does
AT&T intend to do about the growing demand in the near term?

De la Vega's comments on this subject really caught my attention

Without the proper management of these networks, De la Vega said,  
regular
data users will be "crowded out" by the small number of users [read  
iPhone
users] who use massive amounts of data.

"We have to manage the network to make sure that the few cannot crowd  
out
the many," De la Vega continued. He said the words "crowded out" at  
least
five times in that part of his keynote address.

But what exactly does De la Vega mean by "proper management"? That  
kind of
talk reminds me of Comcast's much-maligned strategy of throttling down  
the
bandwidth allowance of users who routinely download large torrent files.

In the face of exploding data service demand and scarce wireless  
spectrum,
does AT&T intend to quietly begin rationing the data usage of  
bandwidth hogs
like the iPhone? Will AT&T begin to quietly "manage" the duration and  
speed
of my 3G connection based on how much data I've used in a given day,  
or on
the type of content or services I'm using the bandwidth to access?

Of course nobody outside AT&T knows exactly what the company has in  
mind.
But if De la Vega's numbers are correct, AT&T will be forced to do
something, and I got the impression that De la Vega was casually  
introducing
the "rationing" concept to the wireless community today.

AT&T's exclusive deal with Apple to sell the iPhone has made it a top- 
shelf
wireless provider, but that blessing could become a curse if the AT&T 3G
network can't keep up with the large bandwidth appetite of the popular
device.








__________ Informatie van ESET Smart Security, versie van database
viruskenmerken 4494 (20091009) __________

Het bericht is gecontroleerd door  ESET Smart Security.

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