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Re: Cisco: Smart grid will eclipse size of Internet
From: David Farber <dave () farber net>
Date: Wed, 20 May 2009 09:31:58 -0400
Begin forwarded message: From: Rahul Tongia <tongia () cmu edu> Date: May 20, 2009 12:32:51 AM EDT To: dave () farber net Cc: ip <ip () v2 listbox com>, Rahul Tongia <tongia () cmu edu> Subject: Re: [IP] Re: Cisco: Smart grid will eclipse size of Internet Reply-To: tongia () cmu edu Dave, personal reactions, if you might share on [IP]As a researcher in the "smart grid" space, I will mention several facts/observations about smart grids:
1) People are throwing solutions out before figuring out what the problems are. Adding billions of $ to the mix (with strange rules to boot - e.g., sizes and $ limits per project) doesn't help. 2) The fundamental thing utilities need to understand when designing systems is what their functional goals are: audit (important in a place like India, with 10-20% theft), monitoring, or control. You need different designs. These then lead you to the issue of communications design. It's NOT bandwidth that is the concern, but predictability and reliability. Should the utility own it themselves, or rely on outsiders? I could user outsiders with the former, but is it appropriate for things like control? I don't think so (IMHO). 3) Some of the largest vendors of meters and affiliated technology are behind the curve in technology. Some of the best firms in this space are relatively small. 4) Security cannot be an add-on. Everyone pays lip service to security, just like being "green." But have we developed the right, lightweight solutions? 5) Open standards are going to be critical, else we will end up with $ $, proprietary, and sometimes inferior solutions. 6) Getting communications right in both directions is the key challenge. We need to innovate more! Both directions means from the user/meter to and from the utility. Then, from a user's central point (maybe meter, maybe inside), signaling to appliances and devices. One has to realize how little the costs could be for smart systems. Take a smart fridge. No, I don't want it to order milk when my an RFID chip on the milk carton says expired. I just want energy efficiency and load control. If a fridge knows when peak electricity is, then there is no reason it should run the compressor, or five times worse, the defrost cycle, during peak periods. Extra cost at the fridge level for the intelligence AND short-range communications? A few dollars (if built to standards in high volume). The issue is chicken- and-egg. Who signals, where, and how is an unanswered Q. The utility? Governement? A neutral grid operator? Consumer aggregators (energy service providers)? Or the consumer himself/herself? I think automated systems that don't rely on humans are going to work better than people staring at a household display (thermostat/meter) to take actions. As a consumer, I should be in charge of that, unless I am willing to give the utility or a 3rd party such control. Certainly price signals are important. Here Time of Use is not as good as Real-time (near real time) since (1) ToU can become a self- negating prophecy and (2) only the latter can deal with unforeseen events. A relatively sophisticated (but low bandwidth) solution is important. We need bidirectional communications once we go beyond automated metering as a goal. For starters, you need that if you consider communications security. You need to have touchless upgrades and security enhancements - a meter will last 15-20 years. Can anyone swap out a network key with a one-way radio broadcast and verify it? Bidirectional is also important when we consider compliance (if not "theft"). I'm not talking the India or Nigeria kind. I remember a story about direct load control in the Detroit area in the early 1920s or 30s. The utility would pay people to let it control their water heaters or other such load, using analog radio signals. People then figured out they could get paid but yet have no discomfort if they just put aluminum foil over the receiver!
The good news is the amount of load control we need to make a difference isn't much. Avoiding blackouts is cutting loads of maybe 5-10% or so. Saving 5% of PEAK electricity is (rule of thumb) some 25% of generation costs.
Rahulp.s. I am doing a lot of smart grid work in India right now, where I am at the Center for Study of Science, Technology, and Policy (CSTEP), Bangalore (www.cstep.in). Folks interested can contact me...
************************************************************************ Rahul Tongia, Ph.D. Senior Systems Scientist [on leave] Program in Computation, Organizations, and Society (COS) School of Computer Science (ISR) / Dept. of Engineering & Public Policy Carnegie Mellon University Pittsburgh, PA 15213 USA tel: 412-268-5619 fax: 412-268-2338 email: tongia () cmu edu http://www.cs.cmu.edu/~rtongia David Farber wrote:
Begin forwarded message:*From: *"Bob Frankston" <Bob19-0501 () bobf frankston com <mailto:Bob19-0501 () bobf frankston com >>*Date: *May 19, 2009 7:06:08 PM EDT*To: *<dave () farber net <mailto:dave () farber net>>, "'ip'" <ip () v2 listbox com <mailto:ip () v2 listbox com>>*Subject: **RE: [IP] Cisco: Smart grid will eclipse size of Internet*This reminds me of http://frankston.com/public/?name=ipBPL and http://frankston.com/?name=TelecomPrison and other reasons to be suspicious of the “smart grid”. We’re talking about low speed connections that can run over just about anything – barbed wire for example. So how can it be more expensive that all that so-called high-speed Internet? Admittedly we are talking about a market that can’t spend small bucks – like the conversation I had in the 90’s with a company that sold LCD screens. They couldn’t sell one to X-Ray rooms – they could only sell them by the roomful because there was no mechanism for buying something that inexpensive. Perhaps they are talking about “level 4 switching” in which we revert back to the omniscient network that turns off our dishwashers because we can’t be trusted to manage our own usage or purchase policies from third parties. I’m getting very cynical about all these just-so stories that do real harm – like the one that confuses broadband with Internet connectivity. If you read throughhttp://hraunfoss.fcc.gov/edocs_public/attachmatch/FCC-09-31A1.pdf you’ll see all the policies that presume that it is broadband, not connectivity, that enables all goodness to happen (including smart grids). It’s like saying that transportation system requires supersonic cars that enables grocery shopping. Of course we want to have our devices connected and use digital protocols for managing systems. I’m just suspicious of the irresistible temptation to find refuge from Moore’s law. We need to retire the term “smart gird” and talk about the elements of each marketplace we have here rather than selling investors on the idea that there are big bucks to be gotten by all.-----Original Message-----From: David Farber [mailto:dave () farber net] Sent: Tuesday, May 19, 2009 18:19To: ip Subject: [IP] Cisco: Smart grid will eclipse size of Internet Begin forwarded message:From: dewayne () warpspeed com <mailto:dewayne () warpspeed com> (Dewayne Hendricks)Date: May 19, 2009 9:10:25 AM EDTTo: Dewayne-Net Technology List <xyzzy () warpspeed com <mailto:xyzzy () warpspeed com >>Subject: [Dewayne-Net] Cisco: Smart grid will eclipse size of Internet CISCO: SMART GRID WILL ECLIPSE SIZE OF INTERNETCisco sees a $100 billion market opportunity in the smart grid. The company make communications equipment for the electricity grid -- everything from routers in grid substations to home energy controllers. Cisco's move is a sign that the creaky electricity distribution system is poised for a digital upgrade. Other high-tech companies, including IBM, Intel, and several start-ups, are ramping up smart-grid efforts to capitalize on expected investments from utilities and federal governments. Cisco estimates that the communications portion of that build-out is worth $20 billion a year over the next five years. The idea of the "smart grid" is to modernize the electricity industry by overlaying digital communications onto the grid. Smart meters in a person's home, for example, can communicate energy usage to utilities in near real time. That allows the utility to more efficiently manage the electricity supply and potentially allow a consumer to take advantage of cheaper rates. <http://news.cnet.com/8301-11128_3-10241102-54.html?part=rss&subj=news&tag=2547-1_3-0-5 <http://news.cnet.com/8301-11128_3-10241102-54.html?part=rss&subj=news&tag=2547-1_3-0-5 >> Courtesy of the Benton Foundation <http://www.benton.org> RSS Feed: <http://www.warpspeed.com/wordpress> ------------------------------------------- Archives: https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/247/=now RSS Feed: https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/rss/247/ Powered by Listbox: http://www.listbox.com ------------------------------------------------------------------------Archives <https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/247/=now> <https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/rss/247/ > [Powered by Listbox] <http://www.listbox.com>
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