"IP traffic will nearly double every two years through 2012."

[David Farber <dave () farber net>]

________________________________________
From: DV Henkel-Wallace [gumby () henkel-wallace org]
Sent: Wednesday, June 18, 2008 4:52 PM
To: David Farber
Subject: "IP traffic will nearly double every two years through 2012."

Dave,

The subject line of this message comes from a self-serving forecast by
Cisco (which I saw on slashdot).  Despite it being a marketing paper I
found the numbers pretty interesting.  For example they speculate that
by 2012 they think backbone traffic will exceed 44 exabytes/month.
They think most of the consumption will be video, which means the
"first mile" will need tons of bandwidth too.

So: to me this says that charging by the byte is just sticking your
finger in the dyke.

To the ILECs it presumably says that metered service is is coming none
too soon.

But this also suggests to me that small wireless provides are toast.



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