Interesting People mailing list archives
Re: Spinning Black Friday Retail Sales
From: David Farber <dave () farber net>
Date: Thu, 4 Dec 2008 08:35:06 -0500
Begin forwarded message: From: "David Chessler" <chessler () usa net> Date: December 4, 2008 3:40:15 AM EST To: "David Farber" <dave () farber net> Subject: Fwd: [IP] Re: Spinning Black Friday Retail SalesNote the calculations on the price of gas, based on the current spot price of oil. Gas was about $1.50/gallon, or a bit less, a few years ago. When gas gets that cheap, which is probably less than the 30c a gallon from the early 70s, or the 25c I remember from the early 60s, then big gas guzzlers will be popular. My brother used to evaluate cars by how many fully loaded frame packs he could put in the trunk without removing the sleeping bags. Most large cars
could take at least 6, or one per passenger.We can expect gas to remain cheap until we dig out of this recession, which will probably take 3 to 5 years. During this period it will be hard to sell hybrids, electric cars, Smart Cars, and other fuel-saving expedients. So there will be a lot of SUVs and trucks on the road (or whatever people can get to haul their load--small school busses, anyone?) Unless, we tax gasoline to keep
it up around $4 or more per gallon.One important reason the auto companies are in such bad shape is that, in the US market, they can't sell the small cars they are required to build (CAFE standards) at a reasonable price. Just because you build it doesn't mean they
will come! ------ Original Message ------ Received: Thu, 04 Dec 2008 01:28:49 AM EST From: David Farber <dave () farber net> To: "ip" <ip () v2 listbox com> Subject: [IP] Re: Spinning Black Friday Retail Sales Begin forwarded message: From: Tobin Maginnis <ptm () pix cs olemiss edu> Date: December 3, 2008 7:54:28 PM EST To: dave () farber net Subject: Re: [IP] Re: Spinning Black Friday Retail Sales Oops, I meant oil when I said gasoline. Fixed below. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) market basket does include gasoline. http://www.bls.gov/cpi/cpifaq.htm#Question_6 But the question was how were the sales on *Black Friday*; not Cyber Monday when Internet holiday sales begin. Regardless, the price of gasoline is in deflation at the moment. I have compared the spot price of oil and the average price of a gallon of gasoline for the last eight years and noted an average "crack spread" of 3%. So as a rule-of-thumb one can multiply the spot price by 3% and see what the price of a historic gallon of gasoline. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crack_spread At the moment the spot price of oil is $47/barrel which should be about $1.41/gal for gasoline. As usual, it seems easy for prices to rise, but they come down very slowly. ================================ David Farber wrote:
Begin forwarded message: From: Esther Dyson <edyson () edventure com> Date: December 3, 2008 7:57:36 AM EST To: dave () farber net, "ip" <ip () v2 listbox com> Subject: Re: [IP] Re: Spinning Black Friday Retail Sales Yes, but if those inflation numbers include the price of gas (which is rarely bought online!), then the bias may be overstated as well. In other words, always look your holiday gift horses in the mouth! and don't jump to conclusions. Esther At 02:19 PM 12/2/2008, David Farber wrote:Begin forwarded message: From: Tobin Maginnis <ptm () pix cs olemiss edu> Date: December 2, 2008 10:05:47 AM EST To: dave () farber net Subject: Re: [IP] Spinning Black Friday Retail Sales Dave, Barry did not take inflation into consideration which more than accounts for the difference! Using the 1980 BLS method, inflation for the last year has averaged more than 11%! Therefore sales figures are actually down 11%-7% or 4%! From: http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/download_cpi? mode=text CPI-U SGS-Alt Index CPI-U CPI-Equiv SGS-Alt Year Month 1982/4=100 Yr/Yr % Index Yr/Yr % 2007 Oct 208.9 3.54% 551.9 11.07% 2007 Nov 210.2 4.31% 556.3 11.75% 2007 Dec 210.0 4.08% 564.5 11.73% 2008 Jan 211.1 4.28% 572.2 11.80% 2008 Feb 211.7 4.03% 582.4 11.56% 2008 Mar 213.5 3.98% 589.3 11.58% 2008 Apr 214.8 3.94% 593.5 11.53% 2008 May 216.6 4.18% 599.6 11.82% 2008 Jun 218.8 5.02% 612.3 12.59% 2008 Jul 220.0 5.60% 617.8 13.36% 2008 Aug 219.1 5.37% 617.5 13.22% 2008 Sep 218.8 4.94% 619.0 12.86% 2008 Oct 216.6 3.66% 616.1 11.63% David Farber wrote:Begin forwarded message: From: dewayne () warpspeed com (Dewayne Hendricks) Date: December 1, 2008 11:18:20 PM EST To: Dewayne-Net Technology List <xyzzy () warpspeed com> Subject: [Dewayne-Net] Spinning Black Friday Retail Sales Spinning Black Friday Retail Sales Posted By Barry Ritholtz On December 1, 2008 @ 7:11 am <http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2008/12/spinning-black-friday-retail-sales/
A few things you can count on every year around this time: • Sales data for Black Friday will be touted by biased interest groups. They are invariably have an upside bias; • Headline writers will get it wrong • Survey data will be taken as the equivalent of actual sales; • Strong forecasts will be subsequently proven wrong; Such is the current situation with the Black Friday sales data, with reports still trickling in from around the country. The WSJ goes for a hat trick of errors, starting with this article’s headline: • [1] Holiday Shopping Off to Strong Start What’s wrong with this? First, as opposed to actual sales data, they rely on a “survey of 3,370 shoppers, the National Retail Federation estimated shoppers spent an average of $372.57 over the weekend, up 7.2% over last year’s $347.55.” The National Retail Federation is hardly the objective group you want crafting (or hiring 3rd parties to create) survey questions; 2nd, we know that humans are terrible at forecasting their own behaviors. Historically, their projections have had little correlation with their actual spending patterns. And third, the headline is belied by the details contained in the article. ([2] MarketWatch was no better) [snip]RSS Feed: <http://www.warpspeed.com/wordpress> ------------------------------------------- Archives: https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/247/=now RSS Feed: https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/rss/247/ Powered by Listbox: http://www.listbox.com------------------------------------------- Archives: https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/247/=now RSS Feed: https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/rss/247/ Powered by Listbox: http://www.listbox.comEsther Dyson Always make new mistakes! EDventure Holdings c/o Meetup, 10th floor 632 Broadway New York, NY 10012 USA phone: +7 964 553 3704 (or send e-mail) by appointment or... available Sunday night to Friday morning, 7 to 8 pm and 7 to 10 am PST (or 10 to 11 am GMT weekdays) edyson () edventure com www.edventure.com Flickr pictures: http://www.flickr.com/photos/edysonRelease 0.9 (blog and bio): http://www.huffingtonpost.com/esther- dyson/or feed://www.ponyfish.com/feeds/14320hOmiDEju "The remainder of the proof is left as an exercise for the reader." ------------------------------------------- Archives: https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/247/=now RSS Feed: https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/rss/247/ Powered by Listbox: http://www.listbox.com
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