Re: Internet could clog networks by 2010, study says

[David Farber <dfarber () cs cmu edu>]

Begin forwarded message:

From: "Bob Frankston" <bob37-2 () bobf frankston com>
Date: November 21, 2007 7:53:08 PM EST
To: <dave () farber net>, <ip () v2 listbox com>
Cc: "'Dewayne Hendricks'" <dewayne () warpspeed com>
Subject: RE: [IP] Internet could clog networks by 2010, study says

Oy again? Wasn’t the phone system supposed to collapse due to modems?

The report is too full of nonsense to rebut in detail so the real  
question is who paid for the report and their goals. At http://www.nemertes.com/ 
 they have the chutzpah to emphasize that it’s anindependent study.  
The longer version is at http://www.nemertes.com/internet_singularity_delayed_why_limits_internet_capacity_will_stifle_innovation_web 
.

At least when Bob Metcalfe warned of the Internet collapsing he had a  
sense of humor and didn't attempt to write academic-sounding reports.

Perhaps the absurdity is evident in their statement “This resulted in  
the first-ever study that assessed both infrastructure investment and  
current/projected traffic patterns independently, and compared the  
two. It is also the first study to apply Moore’s Law (or something  
very like it) to the pace of application innovation on the “Net” and  
validate that it appears to conform to the available data so far.”  
They are willing to apply Moore’s law to increasing demand but not to  
the ability to take advantage of existing technology. This is  
completely backwards – the point of the end-to-end constraint is that  
we take advantage of opportunities – the applications adapt to what is  
available and it’s not just about more video from a central source –  
just the opposite! The highest value applications put the least demand  
on the infrastructure! (OK, TV has high value but…)

They do say that the backbone will scale but the problem is in the  
access network. Their solution, no surprise, is more of that Olde Tyme  
Broadband. Of course the solution is more money for “broadband” even  
as the industry works at a furious pace to prevent a repeat of the  
overcapacity of the “fiber bubble”. It’s as if we need to pay the  
carriers from continuing to keep their capacity unavailable and  
wasting it in using their last mile networks in broadcast TV mode.

"Want a seamless end-to-end network?" was the tagline for the ad that  
greeting me going to the site. Of course that's a womb-to-tomb model.  
It gives a sense that this is part of the IPSphere mentality warning  
us that we need protection from the wrath of the network owners if we  
deny them the money they demand to fund their networks.

-----Original Message-----
From: David Farber [mailto:dfarber () cs cmu edu]
Sent: Wednesday, November 21, 2007 18:22
To: ip () v2 listbox com
Subject: [IP] Internet could clog networks by 2010, study says



Begin forwarded message:

From: dewayne () warpspeed com (Dewayne Hendricks)
Date: November 21, 2007 10:37:44 AM EST
To: Dewayne-Net Technology List <xyzzy () warpspeed com>
Subject: [Dewayne-Net] Internet could clog networks by 2010, study says

Internet could clog networks by 2010, study says
Telephony Online
By Sarah Reedy

User demand for the Internet could outpace network capacity by 2010,
according to a study released today by Nemertes Research. The study
found that corporate and consumer Internet usage could surpass the
Internet access infrastructure, specifically in North America, but
also worldwide, within the next three to five years.

<http://telephonyonline.com/home/news/internet_network_capacity_111907/>


-------------------------------------------
Archives: http://v2.listbox.com/member/archive/247/=now
RSS Feed: http://v2.listbox.com/member/archive/rss/247/
Powered by Listbox: http://www.listbox.com

-------------------------------------------
Archives: http://v2.listbox.com/member/archive/247/=now
RSS Feed: http://v2.listbox.com/member/archive/rss/247/
Powered by Listbox: http://www.listbox.com